Free UEFA Nations League predictions: the model's favourite on every fixture with the best price beside it, and the model's calls graded on the public record, misses included.
8 UEFA Nations League matches from Thursday 12 November
market favourite Belgium 1.91 52% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Spain 1.15 87% implied
Over 2.5 1.53, market 65%
market favourite England 1.25 80% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite France 1.85 54% implied
Over 2.5 1.67, market 60%
market favourite Germany 1.30 77% implied
Over 2.5 1.40, market 71%
market favourite Netherlands 1.40 71% implied
Over 2.5 1.55, market 65%
market favourite Norway 1.22 82% implied
Over 2.5 1.40, market 71%
market favourite Portugal 1.44 69% implied
Over 2.5 1.57, market 64%
The Nations League introduced a competitive structure to international football that the model has had to learn from scratch. Promotion and relegation between Leagues A, B, C and D means the form-vs-class gap shifts every cycle, and the rotation patterns are different to friendlies. We model Leagues A and B separately from C and D because the underlying data quality is significantly better at the top tier. Below: every upcoming UEFA Nations League fixture in the next seven days, with our probabilities for match result, BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals. Each fixture page includes the bookmaker odds comparison, recent form and head-to-head where available. Every call the model makes here is graded in public, misses included.
How often each market has landed in the UEFA Nations League, with an honest read on where the model has a proven record.
Every Nations League call the model makes is logged before kick-off and graded win or loss on the public record, misses included. The record link on this page opens it, with the full settled history on the track record page.
Promotion and relegation between Leagues A, B, C and D means the form-vs-class gap shifts every cycle. We model Leagues A and B separately from C and D because underlying data quality is significantly better at the top tier.
The double-chance market has been our steadier line in this competition. The record page grades every call by market, so you can check it for yourself.
The four-team finals are some of the highest-data-density international matches we model: full xG, confirmed starting XIs, complete recent form. Confidence in our probabilities is high.
Yes when fixtures fall inside our seven-day window. Play-off matches are treated as a separate knockout regime.
We weight recent club-football form into the international fixture model because national-team coaches typically pick on club-football performance: a striker scoring for his club week-on-week is more likely to start than one stuck on the bench.
Our model reads the prices of the UK bookmakers we track, the form and the head to head to produce UEFA Nations League predictions. Every fixture shows the best price we can find beside the model's number, on the match result, both teams to score, the goals lines and more.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
Turkey
Belgium
Czech Republic
Spain
England
Croatia
Italy
France
Serbia
Germany
Netherlands
Greece
Norway
Wales
Portugal
Denmark