Free Primeira Liga predictions: the model's favourite on every fixture with the best price beside it, and the model's calls graded on the public record, misses included.
9 Primeira Liga matches this week
market favourite Famalicao 2.00 50% implied
Over 2.5 1.95, market 51%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Academico Viseu 2.38 42% implied
Over 2.5 1.95, market 51%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Alverca 1.73 58% implied
Over 2.5 1.90, market 53%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Sporting CP 1.15 87% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Estoril 2.05 49% implied
Over 2.5 1.90, market 53%
market favourite Santa Clara 2.20 45% implied
Over 2.5 2.50, market 40%
market favourite FC Porto 1.67 60% implied
Over 2.5 1.80, market 56%
market favourite Benfica 1.22 82% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite SC Braga 1.55 65% implied
Over 2.5 1.80, market 56%
Portugal's Primeira Liga is a lower-volume market on our site but the model still treats it on equal footing: same probability framework, same bookmaker comparison, the same best price beside the model's number. The big-three dominance (Porto, Benfica, Sporting) is more pronounced than any European top-five league: the favourite wins these head-to-heads with the rest of the division at a higher rate than the table position implies, which keeps the prices on the big three short. Below: every upcoming Primeira Liga fixture in the next seven days, with our probabilities for match result, BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals. Each fixture page includes the bookmaker odds comparison, recent form and head-to-head where we have it. Every call the model makes here is graded in public, misses included.
Last 5 results in the league per team. Sorted by form points (W=3, D=1, L=0).
This season's leading scorers. Tap a name for full stats and anytime-scorer form.
How often each market has landed in the Primeira Liga, with an honest read on where the model has a proven record.
Every Primeira Liga call the model makes is logged before kick-off and graded win or loss on the public record, misses included. The record link on this page opens it, with the full settled history on the track record page. Coverage volume is moderate.
Very. Porto, Benfica and Sporting win their fixtures against the rest of the division at a higher rate than the table position implies, which keeps their prices short.
When cup fixtures appear inside our seven-day window they're covered with standard cup-rotation logic.
Match-result calls on the big-three favourites are statistically our best line here. Goals markets show wider variance because the gap between the top three and the rest produces blowout scorelines that skew goal expectancy.
Not at present. Primeira Liga is our only Portuguese coverage.
The model accounts for rotation risk when Porto, Benfica or Sporting have a midweek European fixture. Recent form weighting is adjusted to reflect likely XI changes for the league match.
Our model reads the prices of the UK bookmakers we track, the form and the head to head to produce Primeira Liga predictions. Every fixture shows the best price we can find beside the model's number, on the match result, both teams to score, the goals lines and more.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
Famalicao
Arouca
Nacional
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
Moreirense
Estoril
Maritimo
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
Vitória SC
FC Porto
Estrela
Benfica
Rio Ave
SC Braga
