Value bets
Games where our model's number sits above what the bookmaker's price needs, most likely first. A gap is not a promise of profit; every pick is graded in public.
20
picks listed
What is on this page?
Each card shows our model's number for a pick and the chance its price needs to break even. Here the model's number is the higher of the two. That is a difference of opinion with the bookmaker, not an advantage.
How do we find them?
We set our model's probabilities against odds from 10+ bookmakers and list the games where the model's number is above what the best price needs.
MLS
Orlando City SC
v
New England Revolution
Yes
BTTS
+
Model 80%+ · price needs 74%
1.35
Orlando SC 80%+ to score (avg 1.9/game). New Englan... 80%+ to score (Orlando SC concede 2.4/game).
Best odds at
William Hill
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
v
FC Augsburg
Yes
BTTS
+
Model 80%+ · price needs 74%
1.36
RB Leipzig 80%+ to score (FC Augsburg concede 1.9/game). FC Augsburg 80%+ to score (avg 2.3/game).
Best odds at
William Hill
MLS
FC Cincinnati
v
Nashville SC
Yes
BTTS
+
Model 77% · price needs 71%
1.40
FC Cincinn... 75% to score (avg 2.0/game). Nashville SC 80%+ to score (FC Cincinn... concede 2.2/game).
Best odds at
William Hill
Championship
Portsmouth
v
Stoke City
Yes
BTTS
+
Model 61% · price needs 54%
1.85
Portsmouth 72% to score. Stoke 74% to score (avg 1.6/game).
Best odds at
William Hill
Scottish Championship
Arbroath
v
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Away Win
+
Model 48% · price needs 42%
2.40
Away team higher. The market prices this at 39%; the model's own number is 48%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Primeira Liga
Nacional
v
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
Away Win
+
Model 47% · price needs 42%
2.38
6th visits 15th. Academico ... won their last 3 away. Hosts struggling.
Best odds at
William Hill
Ekstraklasa
Slask Wroclaw
v
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
Away Win
+
Model 47% · price needs 40%
2.50
7th visits 16th. The market prices this at 39%; the model's own number is 47%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Europa Conference League
FK Crvena Zvezda
v
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Yes
BTTS
+
Model 46% · price needs 41%
2.45
FK Crvena ... 79% to score (avg 2.0/game). Inter Club... 80%+ to score (FK Crvena ... concede 2.5/game).
Best odds at
William Hill
Scottish Championship
Raith Rovers
v
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Away Win
+
Model 46% · price needs 38%
2.62
Dunfermline unbeaten in 5 away. The market prices this at 35%; the model's own number is 46%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Süper Lig
Gaziantep FK
v
Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
Away Win
+
Model 45% · price needs 38%
2.62
5th visits 16th. Kasımpaşa won 3 of their last 5 away. Hosts struggling. The market prices this at 34%; the model's own number is 45%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Europa League
Celta Vigo
v
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
Away Win
+
Model 44% · price needs 34%
2.90
6th visits 25th. Union St. ... won their last 5 away. The market prices this at 31%; the model's own number is 44%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Eredivisie
ADO Den Haag
v
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
Away Win
+
Model 44% · price needs 38%
2.62
11th visits 17th. Hosts struggling. The market prices this at 35%; the model's own number is 44%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Serie B
Mantova
v
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
Away Win
+
Model 44% · price needs 36%
2.75
Priced from the market's consensus. The market prices this at 34%; the model's own number is 44%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Ligue 2
Boulogne
v
Annecy
Annecy
Away Win
+
Model 43% · price needs 34%
2.90
7th visits 14th. Annecy won 3 of their last 5 away. The market prices this at 32%; the model's own number is 43%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Scottish Premiership
ST Johnstone
v
Dundee
Dundee
Away Win
+
Model 42% · price needs 36%
2.75
Away team higher. The market prices this at 33%; the model's own number is 42%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Europa Conference League
Mjallby AIF
v
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
Away Win
+
Model 41% · price needs 32%
3.10
Priced from the market's consensus. The market prices this at 31%; the model's own number is 41%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Liga MX
Atlas
v
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Away Win
+
Model 41% · price needs 35%
2.88
CF Pachuca won 3 of their last 5 away. The market prices this at 32%; the model's own number is 41%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
Liga MX
Atlante FC
v
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
Away Win
+
Model 41% · price needs 36%
2.80
8th visits 16th. Hosts struggling.
Best odds at
William Hill
Süper Lig
Samsunspor
v
Konyaspor
Konyaspor
Away Win
+
Model 39% · price needs 33%
3.00
Away team higher. Hosts struggling. The market prices this at 31%; the model's own number is 39%, from its record in this market
Best odds at
William Hill
MLS
Chicago Fire
v
Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
Away Win
+
Model 36% · price needs 31%
3.25
Columbus C... won 3 of their last 5 away.
Best odds at
William Hill
Value betting FAQ
What do the two numbers mean?
The model number is our model's chance for the pick. The price needs number is the chance the odds need to break even: 100 divided by the decimal odds, so odds of 2.00 need 50%.
Is a model number above the price a promise of profit?
No. A model number above what the price needs is not a promise of profit; our record shows these gaps have not paid on their own. Every pick is graded in public.
How often is this page updated?
The list is recalculated through the day from the latest odds at 10+ bookmakers. As prices move, games join the list and others drop off.
What does the long shot label mean?
Our model rates the pick under a 1-in-5 chance. Most long shots lose, so stake accordingly, or not at all.
Keep exploring
Today
Today's tips
Every rated pick for today, ranked by our model's confidence.
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Free
Today's free acca
One a day at 10:00, every leg checked against both sides' form, graded win or lose.
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Proof
The track record
Every pick graded, wins and losses. See how the model really does.
See the record ›