Free FA Cup predictions: the model's favourite on every fixture with the best price beside it, and the model's calls graded on the public record, misses included.
39 FA Cup matches this week
market favourite Cambridge United 1.95 51% implied
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Leicester City 1.25 80% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Burton Albion 1.10 91% implied
Over 2.5 1.30, market 77%
market favourite Plymouth Argyle 1.20 83% implied
Over 2.5 1.36, market 74%
market favourite Bradford City 1.25 80% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Barnsley 1.25 80% implied
Over 2.5 1.35, market 74%
market favourite Luton Town 1.29 78% implied
Over 2.5 1.36, market 74%
market favourite Huddersfield Town 1.29 78% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Colchester United 1.29 78% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Mansfield Town 1.35 74% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Leyton Orient 1.36 74% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Salisbury FC 1.36 74% implied
Over 2.5 1.65, market 61%
market favourite Chesterfield FC 1.44 69% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Milton Keynes Dons 1.55 65% implied
Over 2.5 1.55, market 65%
market favourite Port Vale 1.55 65% implied
Over 2.5 1.62, market 62%
market favourite Barnet FC 1.62 62% implied
Over 2.5 1.65, market 61%
market favourite Gillingham 1.65 61% implied
Over 2.5 1.75, market 57%
market favourite Cheltenham Town 1.75 57% implied
Over 2.5 1.53, market 65%
market favourite Blackpool 1.73 58% implied
Over 2.5 1.53, market 65%
market favourite Doncaster Rovers 1.75 57% implied
Over 2.5 1.67, market 60%
market favourite Fleetwood Town 1.67 60% implied
Over 2.5 1.70, market 59%
market favourite Sutton United FC 1.85 54% implied
Over 2.5 1.70, market 59%
market favourite Wealdstone FC 1.80 56% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Wycombe Wanderers 1.85 54% implied
Over 2.5 1.60, market 62%
market favourite York City FC 1.75 57% implied
Over 2.5 1.83, market 55%
market favourite Shrewsbury Town 1.91 52% implied
Over 2.5 1.70, market 59%
market favourite Oxford United 1.95 51% implied
Over 2.5 1.95, market 51%
market favourite Boreham Wood FC 1.95 51% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Salford City 2.05 49% implied
Over 2.5 1.50, market 67%
market favourite Harrogate Town AFC 1.91 52% implied
market favourite Newport County 2.45 41% implied
Over 2.5 1.83, market 55%
market favourite Crewe Alexandra 2.45 41% implied
Over 2.5 1.95, market 51%
market favourite Bromley FC 2.15 47% implied
Over 2.5 1.57, market 64%
market favourite Notts County FC 1.67 60% implied
Over 2.5 1.57, market 64%
market favourite Reading 2.30 43% implied
Over 2.5 1.62, market 62%
market favourite Grimsby Town 1.29 78% implied
market favourite Stockport County FC 1.15 87% implied
Over 2.5 1.29, market 78%
market favourite Sheffield Wednesday 1.85 54% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
market favourite Plymouth Parkway FC 2.20 45% implied
Over 2.5 1.60, market 62%
The FA Cup breaks more prediction models than any other competition in English football. Replays, rotation, the dilemma every top-flight manager has about resting key starters for league fixtures. The variance is brutal. Our FA Cup model treats third-round and fourth-round ties separately from the quarter-finals onwards, weights home form for League Two and non-league sides drawn against Premier League opposition, and treats any fixture with more than two divisions between the sides with extra caution. Below: every confirmed FA Cup fixture in the upcoming round with our probabilities, BTTS and totals. Each fixture page shows the head-to-head history (including non-cup meetings where they exist), and the bookmaker odds comparison frequently shows wider spreads than league matches. Upsets happen when a Premier League side rotates for a Tuesday-night trip to a League Two ground, but most are not foreseeable, so we read short cup prices with care. Cup samples are smaller by nature, and every call is graded in public all the same.
Last 5 results in the league per team. Sorted by form points (W=3, D=1, L=0).
How often each market has landed in the FA Cup, with an honest read on where the model has a proven record.
Every FA Cup call the model makes is logged before kick-off and graded win or loss on the public record, misses included. The record link on this page opens it, with the full settled history on the track record page. Cup samples are smaller by nature.
Our FA Cup model treats third-round and fourth-round ties separately from the quarter-finals onwards. Rotation is expected in the early rounds for top-flight sides, so we weight home form and squad depth more heavily.
Yes, from the third round (where Premier League and Championship sides enter) through to the final at Wembley. Replay fixtures are covered separately when scheduled.
Statistically the FA Cup has a higher upset rate than any other competition we cover, but most upsets are not flagged by the model in advance. They happen as variance events. We treat any fixture with more than two divisions between the sides with extra caution.
The over/under goal markets swing more in FA Cup ties than in league fixtures, especially when Premier League sides field rotated XIs against lower-league opposition.
Yes when the fixture appears in our seven-day window. Bookmaker odds depth is shallower for non-league sides so we weight head-to-head and form context higher than usual.
Our model reads the prices of the UK bookmakers we track, the form and the head to head to produce FA Cup predictions. Every fixture shows the best price we can find beside the model's number, on the match result, both teams to score, the goals lines and more.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
Bristol Rovers
Cambridge United
Oxford City FC
Leicester City
Burton Albion
AFC Rushden and Diamonds
Plymouth Argyle
Alvechurch FC
Bradford City
Marine FC
Barnsley
Aldershot Town FC
Luton Town
Forest Green Rovers
Huddersfield Town
Exeter City
Colchester United
Worcester City FC
Mansfield Town
Macclesfield Town
Leyton Orient
Harborough Town FC
Salisbury FC
Sholing FC
Chesterfield FC
Yeovil Town
Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town
Port Vale
Scunthorpe United
Barnet FC
Tranmere Rovers
Gillingham
Barrow AFC
Cheltenham Town
FC Halifax Town
Hornchurch FC
Blackpool
Kidderminster Harriers FC
Doncaster Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Rochdale
Guiseley AFC
Sutton United FC
Dover Athletic FC
Wealdstone FC
Accrington Stanley
Wycombe Wanderers
York City FC
Northampton Town
Eastleigh FC
Shrewsbury Town
Oxford United
Stevenage
Boreham Wood FC
Wigan Athletic
Carlisle United
Salford City
Harrogate Town AFC
AFC Fylde
Newport County
Walsall Wood FC
Crewe Alexandra
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley FC
Rotherham United
Altrincham FC
Notts County FC
Peterborough United
Reading
Stafford Rangers FC
Grimsby Town
Cray Wanderers FC
Stockport County FC
Oldham Athletic
Sheffield Wednesday
Plymouth Parkway FC
Berkhamsted FC
