The record
Every call the model publishes, locked before kick-off and graded against the result. Losses included, nothing deleted.
Last updated 4 Nov 2026, 16:08
The model's calls, graded
Information, not what we stake. Every call the model publishes on a league on the record, locked before kick-off. A hit rate is not a profit: a short price needs a high one. That is why the singles we stake are a stricter set.
Calls graded
Won / lost
Hit rate
Monthly breakdown
Wins and losses, month by month. Tap a bar for the count.
Feb 26
Mar 26
Apr 26
May 26
Jun 26
Jul 26
Aug 26
Sep 26
Oct 26
Nov 26
Wins
Losses
Breakdown by market
Every market we have graded, with its hit rate on the record.
Over 1.5 goals
Double chance: home or draw
Home win
Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score: yes
Draw no bet: home
Away win
Under 3.5 goals
Double chance: home or away
Under 4.5 goals
Double chance: away or draw
Both teams to score: no
Markets with fewer than 10 verified picks hidden. Too small a sample to draw conclusions.
Calibration by confidence
For each probability band: what the model predicted vs what actually happened. Close to zero = well-calibrated.
80%+
70-80%
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
30-40%
Green = within 5pp (calibrated). Gold = over-delivering (actual beat the prediction). Red = under-delivering. Small samples are noisy. Weigh bands with more picks more heavily.
Breakdown by league
The same record, split by competition.
Championship
League One
League Two
Premier League
La Liga
Serie A
Ligue 1
Bundesliga
Champions League
World Cup
Brazilian Série A
The model's next calls Locked before kick-off
Already locked into the record above, timestamped before their games kick off. Whatever happens, they grade in public. Every call, priced
AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid
Over 2.5 goals
Champions League
over 2.5 landed in 10 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Wed 4 Nov, 17:45
locked 4 Nov, 10:15
Wrexham v Middlesbrough
Over 1.5 goals
Championship
over 1.5 landed in 10 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Wed 4 Nov, 19:45
locked 2 Nov, 08:30
Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis
Double chance: home or draw
Champions League
home unbeaten in 5 of 6
Wed 4 Nov, 20:00
locked 1 Nov, 08:30
Slavia Praha v Arsenal
Over 1.5 goals
Champions League
over 1.5 landed in 10 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Wed 4 Nov, 20:00
locked 1 Nov, 08:30
Atletico Paranaense v Vasco da Gama
Double chance: home or draw
Brazilian Série A
home unbeaten in 4 of 6 · away lost 4 of 6
Wed 4 Nov, 22:30
locked 3 Nov, 08:30
Sao Paulo v Corinthians
Double chance: home or draw
Brazilian Série A
away lost 4 of 6
Thu 5 Nov, 00:30
locked 2 Nov, 08:30
Cruzeiro v Bahia
Double chance: home or draw
Brazilian Série A
home unbeaten in 5 of 6 · away lost 3 of 6
Fri 6 Nov, 00:30
locked 3 Nov, 08:30
Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Over 1.5 goals
Bundesliga
over 1.5 landed in 9 of the sides' last 12 games (home 4 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Fri 6 Nov, 19:30
locked 3 Nov, 08:30
Venezia v Udinese
Double chance: home or draw
Serie A
away lost 4 of 6
Fri 6 Nov, 19:45
locked 3 Nov, 08:30
Derby v Bolton
Over 1.5 goals
Championship
over 1.5 landed in 9 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 4 of 6)
Fri 6 Nov, 20:00
locked 4 Nov, 08:30
Sevilla v Alaves
Double chance: home or draw
La Liga
away lost 4 of 6
Fri 6 Nov, 20:00
locked 3 Nov, 08:30
Torino v Lecce
Double chance: home or draw
Serie A
home unbeaten in 4 of 6 · away lost 5 of 6
Sat 7 Nov, 14:00
locked 4 Nov, 08:30
Full pick history
Every graded pick, newest first. Filter by market, league, result or date.
| Date | Match | League | Pick | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov |
  Huddersfield v Luton
1-1
|
League One |
Double chance: home or draw
76%
|
1.30 |
Won
The model made Huddersfield or the draw a strong 76% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 6 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-1.
|
| 4 Nov |
  Wigan v Mansfield Town
0-0
|
League One |
Over 1.5 goals
75%
|
1.21 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 75% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-0, only 0 goals, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 4 Nov |
  QPR v Burnley
1-1
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.17 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-1, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 4 Nov |
  Blackburn v Stoke City
1-2
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.28 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 4/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-2, 3 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 4 Nov |
  Birmingham v Millwall
3-0
|
Championship |
Double chance: home or draw
77%
|
1.20 |
Won
The model made Birmingham or the draw a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 5 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 3-0.
|
| 4 Nov |
  Preston v Sheffield Utd
2-3
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.18 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 4/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-3, 5 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 4 Nov |
 Charlton v Bolton
0-1
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
76%
|
1.19 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 76% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 4 Nov |
Birmingham v Millwall
3-0
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.18 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 8/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 4/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 3-0, 3 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 4 Nov |
 Derby v Norwich
0-4
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.15 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 4/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 0-4, 4 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 3 Nov |
  Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP
0-1
|
Champions League |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.14 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 3 Nov |
  Atalanta v Parma
0-3
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 goals
77%
|
1.17 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 0-3, 3 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 2 Nov |
  Juventus v Napoli
2-0
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 goals
76%
|
1.30 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 76% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-0, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 2 Nov |
  Athletic Club v Real Sociedad
2-1
|
La Liga |
Double chance: home or draw
77%
|
1.28 |
Won
The model made Athletic Club or the draw a strong 77% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 5 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-1.
|
| 1 Nov |
 Liverpool v Arsenal
0-1
|
Premier League |
Over 1.5 goals
73%
|
1.25 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a 73% lean before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 1 Nov |
  Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool
1-1
|
League One |
Double chance: home or draw
80%+
|
1.15 |
Won
The model made Sheffield Wednesday or the draw a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 4 of 6 · away lost 4 of 6.
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 1-1.
|
| 1 Nov |
  AC Milan v Inter
3-1
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 goals
78%
|
1.16 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 78% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 3-1, 4 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 1 Nov |
  Estac Troyes v Le Mans
2-0
|
Ligue 1 |
Over 1.5 goals
74%
|
1.23 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a 74% lean before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 6/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-0, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 31 Oct |
 Udinese v AS Roma
2-5
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.15 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-5, 7 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 31 Oct |
  Chelsea v Manchester United
2-0
|
Premier League |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.15 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 12/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 6/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-0, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 31 Oct |
  West Ham v West Brom
1-3
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.14 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 4/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-3, 4 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
Showing 20 of 1245
Disclaimer: Odds shown are the best available at the time the prediction was recorded. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. T&Cs apply.
A note from 20 August: nine MLS double-chance picks, three won and six lost, had been published under an automatic promotion. When promotions became a human decision they were moved out of this headline count. They stay graded in the full history above.
Pro
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.