England v Croatia bet builder
A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+
The model's build
No record in this league yet, the market's prices only-
1.41 +
England to win
71% the modelOur board prices this at 71%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 50%.)
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1.01 +
Over 2.5 Goals
80%+ the modelGoals: the sides' goal rates read 5.50 and 2.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.
Built from the bookmakers' prices for England v Croatia, 70% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.
Alternative picks
- England (first half) First Half 64% 1.51 +
- Under 3.5 Goals 59% 1.52 +
More to build with
Extra markets · not trackedPlayer form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
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D. Beljo CroatiaShots on target 1+
D. Beljo: 1.56 shots on target a game over 36 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Marco Pasalic CroatiaShots on target 1+
Marco Pasalic: 1.26 shots on target a game over 34 games [WC form: 2.65/90 over 2 games (34 min), 7% weight
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D. Calvert-Lewin EnglandShots on target 1+
D. Calvert-Lewin: 0.97 shots on target a game over 35 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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M. Gibbs-White EnglandShots on target 1+
M. Gibbs-White: 0.86 shots on target a game over 37 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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A. Kramarić CroatiaShots on target 1+
A. Kramarić: 0.97 shots on target a game over 34 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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A. Budimir CroatiaShots on target 1+
A. Budimir: 1.11 shots on target a game over 37 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 1 games (66 min), 14% weight
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M. Rogers EnglandShots on target 1+
M. Rogers: 0.86 shots on target a game over 37 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 2 games (108 min), 20% weight
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D. Beljo CroatiaAnytime scorer
D. Beljo: 0.86 goals a game over 36 games, away against a side conceding 0.30 a game
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I. Perišić CroatiaShots on target 1+
I. Perišić: 0.63 shots on target a game over 30 games [WC form: 0.50/90 over 2 games (180 min), 30% weight
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D. Beljo CroatiaShots on target 2+
D. Beljo: 1.56 shots on target a game over 36 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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N. Vlašić CroatiaShots on target 1+
N. Vlašić: 0.46 shots on target a game over 37 games [WC form: 0.90/90 over 2 games (100 min), 19% weight
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N. O'Reilly EnglandShots on target 1+
N. O'Reilly: 0.44 shots on target a game over 34 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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I. Perišić CroatiaAnytime assist
I. Perišić on 0.40 assists/match (30 apps, 53 key passes) [WC form: 0.50/90 over 2 games (180 min), 30% weight
Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match stats
Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.
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Over 8.5 Match Corners 47%Corners: England avg 5.5 for/2.7 against, Croatia avg 3.0 for/5.6 against so expected 8.4 match corners
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Over 6.5 Match Corners 73%Corners: England avg 5.5 for/2.7 against, Croatia avg 3.0 for/5.6 against so expected 8.4 match corners; the safer line
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Over 2.5 Match Cards 45%Cards: England avg 0.8/game, Croatia avg 1.7/game so expected 2.5 match cards
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Over 20.5 Match Fouls 46%Fouls: England avg 9.7/game, Croatia avg 10.5/game so expected 20.2 match fouls
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Over 16.5 Match Fouls 79%Fouls: England avg 9.7/game, Croatia avg 10.5/game so expected 20.2 match fouls; the safer line
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Over 26.5 Match Shots 45%Shots: England avg 15.8/game, Croatia avg 10.3/game so expected 26.0 match shots
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Over 22.5 Match Shots 75%Shots: England avg 15.8/game, Croatia avg 10.3/game so expected 26.0 match shots; the safer line
How this is built
The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.
The market's own prices
Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles
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England to win 85% market 1xBet1.18 +
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Under 2.5 second half goals 83% market 1xBet1.21 +
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Under 2 first half goals 81% market 1xBet1.24 +
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Over 1 second half goals 81% market 1xBet1.24 +
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Under 4 goals 80% market 1xBet1.25 +
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Over 1 first half goals 73% market 1xBet1.37 +
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England to win the second half 69% market 1xBet1.44 +
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Over 2.5 goals 68% market 1xBet1.47 +
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The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.