League One predictions today
League One · 72% verified · 1,027 picksFree League One predictions: the call our model makes on every fixture, the best price beside it, logged before kick-off and graded on the public record, misses included.
Free League One predictions: the call our model makes on every fixture, the best price beside it, logged before kick-off and graded on the public record, misses included.
23 League One matches this week
The model's number is free on the next three games still to kick off. Behind this line: 20 more rows. Seven days for £1 opens every other row, the number and the call on each, and the desk's written card on the game: the pattern, who is missing, keep or kill.
Milton Keynes Dons 15:00 Bromley Mansfield Town 15:00 Leyton Orient Leicester 15:00 Wigan Huddersfield 15:00 Luton Doncaster 15:00 Oxford United Cambridge United 15:00 AFC Wimbledon Wycombe 15:00 Reading Stockport County 15:00 Peterborough Stevenage 15:00 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One is genuinely hard to model and we'd rather say so than dress it up. Squad budgets swing by a factor of five inside the same division, lineup news lands an hour before kickoff instead of the Premier League's full afternoon, and the goals-per-game distribution is wider than the top two flights. Our League One model leans more heavily on home/away splits and recent form than on expected-goals, partly because the underlying-numbers feed is sparser here, partly because the form-vs-class gap is wider in the third tier. Below: every upcoming League One fixture with model probabilities for match result, BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals. Each fixture page also shows the API-Football second-opinion percentages. We publish those even when they disagree with us, because at this level the model with the better priors wins. The 30-day accuracy block under the form table is the honest answer to 'should I trust these': we hide it whenever sample size dips below ten settled picks, and you can see the full settled history at /accuracy. League One predictions are best used as part of a bet builder rather than as a single banker. The volatility cuts both ways.
Last 5 results in the league per team. Sorted by form points (W=3, D=1, L=0).
This season's leading scorers. Tap a name for full stats and anytime-scorer form.
How often each market has landed in the League One, with an honest read on where the model has a proven record.
| Date | Fixture | Pick | Score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sept | AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons | Over 1.5 | 0-0 | Lost |
| 12 Sept | Stockport County vs Leicester | Home/Draw | 3-4 | Lost |
| 12 Sept | Stockport County vs Leicester | Over 1.5 | 3-4 | Won |
| 12 Sept | Sheffield Wednesday vs Wigan | Home/Draw | 0-0 | Won |
| 12 Sept | Oxford United vs Burton Albion | Home/Draw | 3-0 | Won |
| 12 Sept | Blackpool vs Bromley | Over 1.5 | 2-2 | Won |
| 12 Sept | Oxford United vs Burton Albion | Over 1.5 | 3-0 | Won |
| 5 Sept | Wigan vs Stockport County | Over 1.5 | 0-4 | Won |
| 5 Sept | Luton vs Leyton Orient | Over 1.5 | 1-1 | Won |
| 5 Sept | Luton vs Leyton Orient | Home/Draw | 1-1 | Won |
| 5 Sept | Leicester vs Oxford United | Home/Draw | 0-4 | Lost |
| 5 Sept | Wycombe vs Milton Keynes Dons | Over 1.5 | 3-3 | Won |
| 5 Sept | Bradford vs Mansfield Town | Home/Draw | 1-0 | Won |
| 5 Sept | Leicester vs Oxford United | Over 1.5 | 0-4 | Won |
| 3 Sept | Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon | Home/Draw | 4-1 | Won |
We publish the 30-day League One hit rate live on this page in the accuracy callout. Sample size in League One tends to be smaller than the Championship or Premier League. We hide the stat entirely when settled volume drops under ten predictions.
Squad budgets vary by a factor of five inside the division, lineup news lands an hour before kickoff, and underlying-numbers data is sparser than the top two flights. Our League One model leans more heavily on home/away splits and recent form.
Every League One match in the upcoming week appears on this page. Each fixture has its own preview with bookmaker comparison, pick reasoning and form context.
We deliberately limit League One picks to single bets and bet-builder legs rather than slot them into our top-tier challenge accumulator. The variance is too high to anchor a multi-leg banker on third-tier matches.
The over/under 2.5 goals market consistently shows the widest variance between bookmaker price and our model number in League One, particularly on the unders side where the public over-rates goal expectancy in mid-table fixtures.
Promotion-chasing form is weighted higher in the final third of the season, and our model treats top-six clubs against mid-table sides as a different regime to top-six against bottom-four. The class gap inside this division is genuinely wider than the table position implies.
Our model analyses odds from 19+ bookmakers to generate League One predictions. We use the most conservative odds from traditional bookmakers (excluding exchanges) to calculate probabilities, giving you the most realistic view of each match. All predictions include match result, BTTS, over/under goals, and more.
Every leg on the card ranked by how likely it is to land, the accas built from that list, the facts behind each leg, and the calls the desk refused, with the reason. Locked before kick-off, graded in public, wins and losses alike.