Free League One predictions: the model's favourite on every fixture with the best price beside it, and the model's calls graded on the public record, misses included.
13 League One matches in the next 16 days
the model's favourite Reading 40% 2.60
Over 2.5 50% at 1.85 · Both to score 56%
Oxford United out: Frankie Kent
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
the model's favourite Milton Keynes Dons 58% 1.60
Over 2.5 59% at 1.62 · Both to score 56%
the model's favourite Luton 54% 1.67
Over 2.5 59% at 1.57 · Both to score 57%
The model's number is free on every game. FBB Pro adds the desk's grade on every market and the singles we'd pick ourselves. Seven days for £1. 18+. BeGambleAware.org
the model's favourite Stockport County 50% 1.83
Over 2.5 59% at 1.62 · Both to score 58%
the model's favourite Leicester 49% 1.85
Over 2.5 54% at 1.65 · Both to score 58%
the model's favourite Huddersfield 44% 2.30
Over 2.5 58% at 1.67 · Both to score 59%
the model's favourite Notts County 44% 2.20
Over 2.5 52% at 1.80 · Both to score 55%
the model's favourite Oxford United 43% 2.50
Over 2.5 57% at 1.57 · Both to score 59%
the model's favourite Blackpool 41% 2.50
Over 2.5 48% at 1.80 · Both to score 56%
the model's favourite Sheffield Wednesday 40% 2.25
Over 2.5 62% at 1.57 · Both to score 62%
the model's favourite Mansfield Town 38% 2.90
Over 2.5 54% at 1.85 · Both to score 56%
the model's favourite Barnsley 38% 2.75
Over 2.5 57% at 1.57 · Both to score 60%
the model's favourite Doncaster 38% 2.30
Over 2.5 54% at 1.62 · Both to score 59%
League One is genuinely hard to model and we'd rather say so than dress it up. Squad budgets swing by a factor of five inside the same division, lineup news lands an hour before kickoff instead of the Premier League's full afternoon, and the goals-per-game distribution is wider than the top two flights. Our League One model leans more heavily on home/away splits and recent form than on expected-goals, partly because the underlying-numbers feed is sparser here, partly because the form-vs-class gap is wider in the third tier. Below: every upcoming League One fixture with model probabilities for match result, BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals. Each fixture page shows who is missing, the form, the head to head and every priced market. The honest answer to 'should I trust these' is the record: every call the model makes is graded in public, misses included, on the track record page. The volatility at this level cuts both ways.
Last 5 results in the league per team. Sorted by form points (W=3, D=1, L=0).
This season's leading scorers. Tap a name for full stats and anytime-scorer form.
How often each market has landed in the League One, with an honest read on where the model has a proven record.
| Date | Fixture | Pick | Score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov |
 
Wigan
v
Mansfield Town
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 0-0 | Lost |
| 4 Nov |
 
Huddersfield
v
Luton
Home/Draw
|
Home/Draw | 1-1 | Won |
| 1 Nov |
 
Sheffield Wednesday
v
Blackpool
Home/Draw
|
Home/Draw | 1-1 | Won |
| 31 Oct |
Mansfield Town
v
Notts County
Home/Draw
|
Home/Draw | 0-2 | Lost |
| 31 Oct |
 
Leicester
v
Stevenage
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 2-2 | Won |
| 31 Oct |
 
Milton Keynes Dons
v
Doncaster
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 6-1 | Won |
| 31 Oct |
Wigan
v
Bromley
Home/Draw
|
Home/Draw | 3-2 | Won |
| 31 Oct |
Wigan
v
Bromley
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 3-2 | Won |
| 31 Oct |
Mansfield Town
v
Notts County
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 0-2 | Won |
| 28 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons
v
Bromley
Home/Draw
|
Home/Draw | 4-1 | Won |
| 28 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons
v
Bromley
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 4-1 | Won |
| 28 Oct |
 
Oxford United
v
Stockport County
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 1-0 | Lost |
| 28 Oct |
Sheffield Wednesday
v
Cambridge United
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 1-1 | Won |
| 24 Oct |
Cambridge United
v
Plymouth
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 2-3 | Won |
| 24 Oct |
Doncaster
v
Sheffield Wednesday
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 2-0 | Won |
Every League One call the model makes is logged before kick-off and graded win or loss on the public record, misses included. The record link on this page opens it, with the full settled history on the track record page. Sample size in League One tends to be smaller than the Championship or Premier League.
Squad budgets vary by a factor of five inside the division, lineup news lands an hour before kickoff, and underlying-numbers data is sparser than the top two flights. Our League One model leans more heavily on home/away splits and recent form.
Every League One match in the upcoming week appears on this page. Each fixture has its own preview with bookmaker comparison, pick reasoning and form context.
We keep League One calls to single bets and bet-builder legs rather than long accumulators. The variance is too high to lean a multi-leg bet on third-tier matches.
The over/under 2.5 goals line carries a wider margin in League One than in the top two flights, so a price has to land more often to pay. Every page shows what the price implies next to the model's number, and every call is graded in public.
Promotion-chasing form is weighted higher in the final third of the season, and our model treats top-six clubs against mid-table sides as a different regime to top-six against bottom-four. The class gap inside this division is genuinely wider than the table position implies.
Our model reads the prices of the UK bookmakers we track, the form and the head to head to produce League One predictions. Every fixture shows the best price we can find beside the model's number, on the match result, both teams to score, the goals lines and more.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
Reading
Burton Albion
Bradford
Wycombe
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
Barnsley
Leyton Orient
