League One Predictions Today
Free AI-powered League One match predictions: model probability, odds comparison and form on every fixture.
Free AI-powered League One match predictions: model probability, odds comparison and form on every fixture.
12 League One matches this week
League One is genuinely hard to model and we'd rather say so than dress it up. Squad budgets swing by a factor of five inside the same division, lineup news lands an hour before kickoff instead of the Premier League's full afternoon, and the goals-per-game distribution is wider than the top two flights. Our League One model leans more heavily on home/away splits and recent form than on expected-goals, partly because the underlying-numbers feed is sparser here, partly because the form-vs-class gap is wider in the third tier. Below: every upcoming League One fixture with model probabilities for match result, BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals. Each fixture page also shows the API-Football second-opinion percentages. We publish those even when they disagree with us, because at this level the model with the better priors wins. The 30-day accuracy block under the form table is the honest answer to 'should I trust these': we hide it whenever sample size dips below ten settled picks, and you can see the full settled history at /accuracy. League One predictions are best used as part of a bet builder rather than as a single banker. The volatility cuts both ways.
Last 5 results in the league per team. Sorted by form points (W=3, D=1, L=0).
How often each market has landed in the League One, with an honest read on where the model has a proven record.
| Date | Fixture | Pick | Score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May | Bradford City vs Bolton Wanderers | Over 2.5 | 0-1 | ✗ |
| 14 May | Stockport County FC vs Stevenage | Home/Draw | 2-0 | ✔ |
| 10 May | Bolton Wanderers vs Bradford City | Home/Draw | 1-0 | ✔ |
| 10 May | Bolton Wanderers vs Bradford City | Over 1.5 | 1-0 | ✗ |
| 10 May | Bolton Wanderers vs Bradford City | BTTS Yes | 1-0 | ✗ |
| 9 May | Stevenage vs Stockport County FC | Home/Away | 0-1 | ✔ |
| 9 May | Stevenage vs Stockport County FC | Under 2.5 | 0-1 | ✔ |
| 9 May | Stevenage vs Stockport County FC | Over 2.5 | 0-1 | ✗ |
| 2 May | Barnsley vs Stockport County FC | Over 2.5 | 1-3 | ✔ |
| 2 May | Northampton Town vs Plymouth Argyle | Over 2.5 | 2-3 | ✔ |
| 2 May | Bolton Wanderers vs Luton | Over 2.5 | 2-3 | ✔ |
| 2 May | Peterborough United vs Doncaster Rovers | Over 2.5 | 1-3 | ✔ |
| 29 Apr | Stockport County FC vs Port Vale | Home win | 1-2 | ✗ |
| 29 Apr | Northampton Town vs Barnsley | Over 2.5 | 0-1 | ✗ |
| 29 Apr | Stockport County FC vs Port Vale | Over 2.5 | 1-2 | ✔ |
We publish the 30-day League One hit rate live on this page in the accuracy callout. Sample size in League One tends to be smaller than the Championship or Premier League. We hide the stat entirely when settled volume drops under ten predictions.
Squad budgets vary by a factor of five inside the division, lineup news lands an hour before kickoff, and underlying-numbers data is sparser than the top two flights. Our League One model leans more heavily on home/away splits and recent form.
Every League One match in the upcoming week appears on this page. Each fixture has its own preview with bookmaker comparison, pick reasoning and form context.
We deliberately limit League One picks to single bets and bet-builder legs rather than slot them into our top-tier challenge accumulator. The variance is too high to anchor a multi-leg banker on third-tier matches.
The over/under 2.5 goals market consistently shows the widest variance between bookmaker price and our model number in League One, particularly on the unders side where the public over-rates goal expectancy in mid-table fixtures.
Promotion-chasing form is weighted higher in the final third of the season, and our model treats top-six clubs against mid-table sides as a different regime to top-six against bottom-four. The class gap inside this division is genuinely wider than the table position implies.
Our AI-powered model analyses odds from 19+ bookmakers to generate League One predictions. We use the most conservative odds from traditional bookmakers (excluding exchanges) to calculate probabilities, giving you the most realistic view of each match. All predictions include match result, BTTS, over/under goals, and more.