Free Europa League predictions: the model's favourite on every fixture with the best price beside it, and the model's calls graded on the public record, misses included.
16 Europa League matches this week
market favourite AC Milan 1.35 74% implied
Over 2.5 1.53, market 65%
AC Milan out: Mike Maignan, Santiago Gimenez
Ferencvarosi TC out: Bence Otvos
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Bournemouth 1.50 67% implied
Over 2.5 1.57, market 64%
Bournemouth out: Alex Scott, Alex Toth
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite NEC Nijmegen 1.75 57% implied
Over 2.5 1.57, market 64%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Crystal Palace 1.91 52% implied
Over 2.5 1.53, market 65%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Anderlecht 1.95 51% implied
Over 2.5 1.62, market 62%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Plzen 2.15 47% implied
Over 2.5 1.57, market 64%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Levski Sofia 1.95 51% implied
Over 2.5 1.80, market 56%
Jagiellonia out: Nik Prelec, Norbert Wojtuszek
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Benfica 1.15 87% implied
Over 2.5 1.30, market 77%
Benfica out: Enzo Barrenechea
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Bayer Leverkusen 1.36 74% implied
Over 2.5 1.44, market 69%
Bayer Leverkusen out: Moussa Diaby, Loic Badé, Eliesse Ben Seghir, Christian Kofane, Martin Terrier
Marseille out: Derek Cornelius
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Sunderland 1.44 69% implied
Over 2.5 1.67, market 60%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Sturm Graz 1.57 64% implied
Over 2.5 1.57, market 64%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Torreense 1.73 58% implied
Over 2.5 2.00, market 50%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Beşiktaş 2.15 47% implied
Over 2.5 1.53, market 65%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Juventus 1.95 51% implied
Over 2.5 1.80, market 56%
AZ Alkmaar out: Jeroen Zoet
Juventus out: Gleison Bremer
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.05 49% implied
Over 2.5 1.67, market 60%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
market favourite Celta Vigo 2.20 45% implied
Over 2.5 1.80, market 56%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
The Europa League is the trickiest UEFA competition to model. Squad rotation is common in the group stage as English and Spanish sides prioritise domestic fixtures, knockout rounds tighten up, and Thursday-Sunday turnaround issues are real. We split our model into a group-stage regime (lighter weight on first XIs, more on home form) and knockout regime (full-strength assumption). Below: every confirmed Europa League fixture with our probabilities for match result, BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals. Each fixture page shows the bookmaker odds comparison across the UK books we track and recent form. The competition has historically been a goals fixture in the group stage and tighter in the knockouts. Every call the model makes here is graded in public, misses included.
Last 5 results in the league per team. Sorted by form points (W=3, D=1, L=0).
This season's leading scorers. Tap a name for full stats and anytime-scorer form.
How often each market has landed in the Europa League, with an honest read on where the model has a proven record.
Every Europa League call the model makes is logged before kick-off and graded win or loss on the public record, misses included. The record link on this page opens it, with the full settled history on the track record page. Coverage volume is lighter than the Champions League.
Squad rotation is common in the group stage as English and Spanish sides prioritise domestic fixtures, and Thursday-Sunday turnaround issues are real. We split our model into group-stage and knockout regimes accordingly.
Group-stage Europa League fixtures historically run as a goals competition while the knockouts tighten up, and the goals prices move with them.
Yes when fixtures fall inside our seven-day forward window, though underlying-numbers data is sparser at that stage.
Match-result calls on the favourite have historically been stronger in the knockout rounds than the group stage. Group-stage variance is wider because rotation patterns are harder to forecast.
No, we treat all sides on the underlying numbers regardless of league of origin. English Premier League clubs in Europa League fixtures often rotate which we account for in the rotation-risk weighting.
Our model reads the prices of the UK bookmakers we track, the form and the head to head to produce Europa League predictions. Every fixture shows the best price we can find beside the model's number, on the match result, both teams to score, the goals lines and more.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
AC Milan
Ferencvarosi TC
Sparta Praha
Bournemouth
NEC Nijmegen
Omonia Nicosia
Crystal Palace
1899 Hoffenheim
Anderlecht
Red Bull Salzburg
Lillestrom
Plzen
Levski Sofia
Jagiellonia
Benfica
Lech Poznan
Bayer Leverkusen
Marseille
Sunderland
Dinamo Zagreb
Sturm Graz
Celje
Torreense
Ararat-Armenia
Celtic
Beşiktaş
AZ Alkmaar
Juventus
Hapoel Beer Sheva
OFI
Celta Vigo
Union St. Gilloise
