Live model performance
Every prediction is logged before kick-off and graded against the result. This page updates with every verified outcome.
Verified results
| Match | League | Prediction | Result | Verified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0-0
|
League One |
Over 1.5 Goals
76%
|
LOSS | 18 Sept |
|
Malaga
vs
Villarreal
1-3
|
La Liga |
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
|
WIN | 18 Sept |
|
7-2
|
La Liga |
Home Win
74%
|
WIN | 17 Sept |
|
4-0
|
La Liga |
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
|
WIN | 16 Sept |
|
4-0
|
La Liga |
Under 4.5 Goals
78%
|
WIN | 16 Sept |
|
2-2
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 Goals
80%+
|
WIN | 16 Sept |
|
0-1
|
La Liga |
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
|
LOSS | 16 Sept |
|
2-1
|
La Liga |
Over 1.5 Goals
76%
|
WIN | 15 Sept |
|
2-1
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
0-1
|
Premier League |
Under 4.5 Goals
75%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
2-2
|
Brazilian Série A |
Double Chance - Home/Draw
78%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
0-3
|
La Liga |
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
2-4
|
La Liga |
Over 2.5 Goals
74%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
0-3
|
La Liga |
Under 4.5 Goals
77%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
1-0
|
Serie A |
Double Chance - Home/Draw
79%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
1-0
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
|
LOSS | 14 Sept |
|
3-2
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 Goals
76%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
2-2
|
Ligue 1 |
Over 2.5 Goals
75%
|
WIN | 14 Sept |
|
0-1
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 Goals
79%
|
LOSS | 13 Sept |
|
0-2
|
Premier League |
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
|
WIN | 13 Sept |
Accuracy by market
Hit rate for each bet type across all verified predictions.
| Market | Record | Hit rate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 195W - 52L | 79% | High |
| Home Win | 126W - 55L | 70% | High |
| Double Chance - Home/Draw | 126W - 24L | 84% | High |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 70W - 39L | 64% | High |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54W - 37L | 59% | Medium |
| BTTS Yes | 31W - 27L | 53% | Medium |
| Draw No Bet - Home | 44W - 8L | 85% | High |
| Away Win | 26W - 23L | 53% | Medium |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 13W - 9L | 59% | Medium |
| Double Chance - No Draw | 13W - 5L | 72% | High |
| Under 4.5 Goals | 12W - 3L | 80% | High |
| Double Chance - Away/Draw | 11W - 1L | 92% | High |
| BTTS No | 6W - 5L | 55% | Medium |
| Draw No Bet - Away | 3W - 2L | 60% | High |
| Draw | 1W - 0L | 100% | High |
Hit rate only. A high hit rate at short odds can still lose money, and a lower one at bigger prices can profit. These bands rank how often a market lands, not its value.
Recent performance by market
Hit rate from each market's most recent 100 verified predictions. Trend compares recent form to the all-time average.
| Market | Sample | Record | Hit rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 100 | 79W - 21L | 79% | Stable |
| Double Chance - Home/Draw | 100 | 78W - 22L | 78% | -6% |
| Home Win | 100 | 73W - 27L | 73% | +3% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 100 | 65W - 35L | 65% | Stable |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 91 | 54W - 37L | 59% | Stable |
| BTTS Yes | 58 | 31W - 27L | 53% | Stable |
| Draw No Bet - Home | 53 | 44W - 9L | 83% | Stable |
| Away Win | 49 | 26W - 23L | 53% | Stable |
| Double Chance - No Draw | 30 | 23W - 7L | 77% | +4% |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 22 | 13W - 9L | 59% | Stable |
| Under 4.5 Goals | 15 | 12W - 3L | 80% | Stable |
| Double Chance - Away/Draw | 13 | 12W - 1L | 92% | Stable |
| BTTS No | 11 | 6W - 5L | 55% | Stable |
| Draw No Bet - Away | 5 | 3W - 2L | 60% | -- |
| First Half - Draw | 2 | 2W - 0L | 100% | -- |
| First Half - Home | 1 | 1W - 0L | 100% | -- |
| First Half - Away | 1 | 0W - 1L | 0% | -- |
| Draw | 1 | 1W - 0L | 100% | -- |
Most predictable leagues
Which leagues the model predicts most accurately.
| Rank | League | Record | Hit rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Championship | 119W - 47L | 72% | 166 |
| 2 | League One | 93W - 45L | 67% | 138 |
| 3 | Premier League | 96W - 40L | 71% | 136 |
| 4 | League Two | 88W - 37L | 70% | 125 |
| 5 | La Liga | 79W - 31L | 72% | 110 |
| 6 | Bundesliga | 69W - 17L | 80% | 86 |
| 7 | Serie A | 52W - 31L | 63% | 83 |
| 8 | Ligue 1 | 60W - 19L | 76% | 79 |
| 9 | Champions League | 41W - 12L | 77% | 53 |
| 10 | World Cup | 28W - 8L | 78% | 36 |
| 11 | Brazilian Série A | 6W - 3L | 67% | 9 |
Why we track this
Most betting tools are black boxes. You have no idea whether their predictions are accurate. We believe in transparency. By tracking every prediction against the actual outcome, you can:
- See exactly how well the model performs across different markets
- Identify which bet types have the best calibration
- Trust that we are continuously improving based on real data
- Make informed decisions about which predictions to follow
Last updated 18 Sept 2026, 17:34
The daily sheet: every leg, with its chance of landing
Every leg on the card ranked by how likely it is to land, the accas built from that list, the facts behind each leg, and the calls the desk refused, with the reason. Locked before kick-off, graded in public, wins and losses alike.