Free Ligue 1 predictions: the model's favourite on every fixture with the best price beside it, and the model's calls graded on the public record, misses included.
8 Ligue 1 matches this week
the model's favourite Paris FC 54% 1.75
Over 2.5 55% at 1.73 · Both to score 56%
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
the model's favourite Paris Saint Germain 71% 1.14
Over 2.5 76% at 1.28 · Both to score 45%
Paris Saint Germain out: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele, Marquinhos
The desk's card on this game is in Pro.
the model's favourite Rennes 39% 2.10
Over 2.5 61% at 1.62 · Both to score 57%
The model's number is free on every game. FBB Pro adds the desk's grade on every market and the singles we'd pick ourselves. Seven days for £1. 18+. BeGambleAware.org
the model's favourite Monaco 56% 1.73
Over 2.5 59% at 1.62 · Both to score 59%
the model's favourite Nice 47% 2.00
Over 2.5 53% at 1.73 · Both to score 57%
the model's favourite Lorient 45% 2.45
Over 2.5 45% at 2.00 · Both to score 52%
the model's favourite Lyon 45% 2.30
Over 2.5 51% at 1.80 · Both to score 55%
the model's favourite Marseille 40% 3.10
Over 2.5 65% at 1.50 · Both to score 65%
Ligue 1 since the PSG dominance softened has been one of the more model-friendly leagues in Europe. Goals-per-game sits in the middle of the top-five distribution, the underlying-numbers feed is high-quality, and the gap between the title contenders and the relegation scrap is wide enough that the favourite hits more often than in any league apart from the Bundesliga top four. We treat PSG matches separately from the rest of the league because their games skew the league's goals markets. Below: every upcoming Ligue 1 fixture in the next seven days, with model probabilities for match result, BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals. Each fixture page shows the full odds comparison, current form and head-to-head. Every call the model makes here is graded in public, misses included.
Last 5 results in the league per team. Sorted by form points (W=3, D=1, L=0).
This season's leading scorers. Tap a name for full stats and anytime-scorer form.
How often each market has landed in the Ligue 1, with an honest read on where the model has a proven record.
| Date | Fixture | Pick | Score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov |
 
Estac Troyes
v
Le Mans
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 2-0 | Won |
| 31 Oct |
 
Lille
v
Lens
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 1-0 | Lost |
| 30 Oct |
 
Le Havre
v
Paris Saint Germain
Over 2.5
|
Over 2.5 | 1-5 | Won |
| 25 Oct |
Auxerre
v
Le Mans
Home/Draw
|
Home/Draw | 1-1 | Won |
| 25 Oct |
Auxerre
v
Le Mans
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 1-1 | Won |
| 25 Oct |
Toulouse
v
Estac Troyes
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 0-0 | Lost |
| 25 Oct |
Monaco
v
Lille
Home/Draw
|
Home/Draw | 1-1 | Won |
| 19 Oct |
 
Lyon
v
Nice
Home/Draw
|
Home/Draw | 2-1 | Won |
| 19 Oct |
Lyon
v
Nice
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 2-1 | Won |
| 18 Oct |
 
Angers
v
Marseille
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 2-5 | Won |
| 12 Oct |
Estac Troyes
v
Marseille
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 0-2 | Won |
| 11 Oct |
Nice
v
Strasbourg
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 2-1 | Won |
| 11 Oct |
Stade Brestois 29
v
Angers
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 5-1 | Won |
| 11 Oct |
 
Lorient
v
Paris FC
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 1-0 | Lost |
| 20 Sep |
Auxerre
v
Stade Brestois 29
Over 1.5
|
Over 1.5 | 2-1 | Won |
Every Ligue 1 call the model makes is logged before kick-off and graded win or loss on the public record, misses included. The record link on this page opens it, with the full settled history on the track record page.
PSG's goal difference skews the league's averages, so the model treats their fixtures as a separate regime from the rest of Ligue 1.
Yes, the gap between the title contenders and the relegation scrap is wide enough that the favourite hits more often than in any league apart from the Bundesliga top four.
Not on a dedicated page yet. Coverage is the French top flight only at present.
Coupe de France fixtures appear when scheduled inside our seven-day forward window, treated with the standard rotation-aware cup logic we apply to FA Cup and Coppa Italia early rounds.
Match-result calls on the favourite have historically been Ligue 1's strongest market. Goals markets carry more variance here than in the Bundesliga or Eredivisie.
Our model reads the prices of the UK bookmakers we track, the form and the head to head to produce Ligue 1 predictions. Every fixture shows the best price we can find beside the model's number, on the match result, both teams to score, the goals lines and more.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
Rennes
