The daily sheet
This is the last sheet written. The sheet for today is written at 08:30, once the board is priced and the desk has read it.
Wednesday 16 September · locked before kick-off, graded after · the record
The three most likely to land 2.24x
Pro
Chosen for probability of landing, not price. One leg per game.
Barcelona over 3.5 was on this lane and has been pulled: the research makes it 62 to land against the 72 the price needs, and that is not close. What is left is three goals legs, each around seven in ten, the best Wednesday offers. Together about one time in three at 2.24. Two of the three are cup ties, and cup rotation is the risk on both.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.26 the research, free, because it lost
Leverkusen have gone over in four of four this season and Celje have scored in every away game. Celje sit deep in Europe, both legs against Slovan finished 1-1, which is why this is 71 and not the 79 the price asks.
Why it lost: Leverkusen won 2-0 without the third goal; Celje's deep block held and the missing forwards left the hosts short of a killer edge.
The facts behind it
Head to head
First meeting between the clubs
At this ground
Leverkusen 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in last 6 at home; Celje 2 wins in 7 away, scored in all 7
Team news
Leverkusen out: Tella, Boniface, Hofmann; doubts: Doue, Medina, Terrier. Celje out: Kotnik, Pisek
This market
Leverkusen over 2.5 in all 4 this season, 13 of 25 at home last season; Celje 5 of 7 away, 2 of 6 in Europe
The case against
Celje sit deep in Europe: three of their last four European games had two goals or fewer and both Slovan legs finished 1-1
The desk's acca 2.94x
Pro
The research desk: a card written on every fixture this morning
The model proposes, the desk reads the game and can veto. Both had to agree.
Under 3.5 goals at 1.40 the research, free, because it lost
Both sequences in the pack are low-event: Botafogo's home form is one win in five, four of five drawn, and Gremio's away form is no wins in five with no away win in it. Gremio travel without Dodi (patellar avulsion, right knee) and with Amuzu a muscle doubt, so Luis Castro's side arrives set up to contain rather than trade. Botafogo lose Kaio Pantaleao and Jordan Barrera to multiligament injuries and Matheus Martins to reconditioning, thinning the attacking rotatio...
One from each sector 2.33x
Pro
The best call in each market, combined
2 legs at 2.33. Every leg you add multiplies the bookmaker's cut, so this stops at four however many sectors have something worth backing.
Under 3.5 goals at 1.40 the research, free, because it lost
Both sequences in the pack are low-event: Botafogo's home form is one win in five, four of five drawn, and Gremio's away form is no wins in five with no away win in it. Gremio travel without Dodi (patellar avulsion, right knee) and with Amuzu a muscle doubt, so Luis Castro's side arrives set up to contain rather than trade. Botafogo lose Kaio Pantaleao and Jordan Barrera to multiligament injuries and Matheus Martins to reconditioning, thinning the attacking rotatio...
Refused today 6 refused
What we refused today, and why. Kill outcomes grade too, including the ones we get wrong.
The days ahead3 days
What the board has already locked for the 3 days ahead. Provisional, re-priced every morning.
Other sheets 13
The model board and the graded record