The daily sheet
This is the last sheet written. The sheet for today is written at 08:30, once the board is priced and the desk has read it.
Monday 14 September · locked before kick-off, graded after · the record
The three most likely to land 1.82x
Pro
Chosen for probability of landing, not price. One leg per game.
Three legs, two unders and an over, the shape of the last three winners. Each leg is the market on its game most likely to land by the research, and the price shown is the average across the book rather than one bookmaker's best. Together they land about half the time at 1.82; on their own each is the surest thing on its game.
The desk's acca 1.90x
Pro
The research desk: a card written on every fixture this morning
The model proposes, the desk reads the game and can veto. Both had to agree. One leg pulled on 14 Sep: a reserve side, which the sheet does not sell.
The bigger price 6.79x
Pro
The model, aimed at a price rather than a strike rate
Expect this to lose more often than it wins. Stake it accordingly.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.63 the research, free, because it lost
Moreirense have drawn their last two at home (home form last 3 reads L D D) and their centre forward Alexandre Duville-Parsemain has not scored from open play this season (Sports Mole). Guilherme Liberato serves the second game of a two-match FPF ban for his red card at Porto, so Mateja Stjepanovic steps into midfield. Maritimo travel with Simo Bouzaidi (leg, missed the last two), Tomas Tavares and Yellu Santiago all doubtful and Nathanael Ogbeta still ...
Why it lost: Moreirense conceded three at home despite recent draws, and Maritimo's weakened defence still found the net once, breaking the Under 2.5 line.
Inter (first half) at 1.65 the research, free, because it lost
Inter are 3rd with home form W W and lose nobody of consequence: Dimarco is a minor knock expected back Monday and only Spence is unavailable. Udinese are 10th and arrive with six named absences including their first-choice centre-back and holding midfielder. The read on the game is not in doubt.
Why it lost: Udinese still led 2-1 or drew level inside the first half despite six absences, showing the missing players did not stop them scoring early against Inter.
One from each sector 1.87x
Pro
The best call in each market, combined
2 legs at 1.87. Every leg you add multiplies the bookmaker's cut, so this stops at four however many sectors have something worth backing.
Refused today 2 refused
What we refused today, and why. Kill outcomes grade too, including the ones we get wrong.
The days ahead3 days
What the board has already locked for the 3 days ahead. Provisional, re-priced every morning.
Other sheets 13
The model board and the graded record