The daily sheet
This is the last sheet written. The sheet for today is written at 08:30, once the board is priced and the desk has read it.
Tuesday 15 September · locked before kick-off, graded after · the record
The three most likely to land 2.29x
Pro
Chosen for probability of landing, not price. One leg per game.
A weaker day than Monday and the numbers say so: nothing on Tuesday's card reaches 75 to land, and every leg here sits a point or two under what its price asks. Three legs, the three most likely, each one researched both ways. Together they land about one time in three at 2.29. Stake it like that.
Under 4.5 goals at 1.40 the research, free, because it lost
All six meetings at Elche stayed under. Against that, both Elche home games this season landed on exactly five goals and Real Madrid have scored four in three of five. Rodrygo, Militao and Mendy out for Madrid, and the derby follows on Sunday.
Why it lost: Elche's home games kept hitting five goals all season and did again, with Real Madrid's understrength defence conceding enough to push it past 4.5.
The facts behind it
Head to head
Last six here: 2-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-2, 1-1, 0-2; 9 of the last 10 meetings under 4.5
At this ground
Elche 2 home games, 8 conceded, both five-goal games; Real Madrid 2 away games, 2 scored, both under 4.5
Team news
Real Madrid out: Rodrygo, Militao, Mendy. Elche out: Yago Santiago
This market
Under 4.5 in 9 of the last 10 meetings; Real Madrid 4 of 6 this season, both away games; Elche 2 of 5
The case against
Elche's two home games both landed on exactly five goals, the one number that kills this, and they have conceded 13 in five
The desk's acca 2.58x
Pro
The research desk: a card written on every fixture this morning
The model proposes, the desk reads the game and can veto. Both had to agree.
Barrow or Draw at 1.41 the research, free, because it lost
Solihull home form reads four defeats from four and last five no wins in five, and they are the only side in the division still without a win, beaten 2-1 at home by Aldershot on 12 Sep when keeper Max Metcalfe put through his own net in the 93rd minute (solihullmoorsfc.co.uk, PA report). Barrow away form is no wins in four, three draws in four on the road, and they drew 2-2 at Worthing on 12 Sep with Mikey Lane scoring twice (barrowafcnews.co.uk). Head-to-head over the last nine is...
Why it lost: Barrow failed to build on their draws, going down 1-0 to a Solihull side that had won nothing all season.
The bigger price 5.73x
Pro
The model, aimed at a price rather than a strike rate
Expect this to lose more often than it wins. Stake it accordingly.
AFC Hornchurch or Draw at 1.60 the research, free, because it lost
Hornchurch own the recent series: of the last 7 meetings the away side has won 3, more than the 2 home wins, with 2 draws. Their away form line reads two wins in four, two wins in four on the road, and Daryl McMahon was named National League Manager of the Month for August (hornchurchfc.com). Worthing come in on one win in five, one win in five, and a home line of one win in four, one win in four, with Jose Marquez taken off inside half an hour on Saturday with a head injury ...
Why it lost: Worthing scored once and made it stand up; Hornchurch's better recent record and home-nation form counted for nothing on the day.
One from each sector 2.14x
Pro
The best call in each market, combined
2 legs at 2.14. Every leg you add multiplies the bookmaker's cut, so this stops at four however many sectors have something worth backing.
West Ham or Draw at 1.59 the research, free, because it lost
Pack has West Ham four wins in five and the H2H last 10 covered by this side of the line seven times (4 home wins, 3 draws). Sky Sports and the EFL have them top of the Championship after a 6-0 win over Wrexham on 11 Sep, a fourth straight league win, with Bowen, Piroe, Mavropanos, Castellanos, Kante and Solomon all scoring. Fulham's away form in the pack is no wins in three and they took their first point of the Premier League season only last weekend, a 0-0 at Anfield, ...
Why it lost: West Ham led the market on home form, but Fulham scored three away from home to win 3-2 despite conceding twice.
Refused today 7 refused
What we refused today, and why. Kill outcomes grade too, including the ones we get wrong.
The days ahead3 days
What the board has already locked for the 3 days ahead. Provisional, re-priced every morning.
Other sheets 13
The model board and the graded record