The daily sheet
Written aheadSunday 13 September · locked before kick-off, graded after · the record
The desk's acca 2.90x
Pro
The research desk: a card written on every fixture this morning
The model proposes, the desk reads the game and can veto. Both had to agree.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 the research, free, because it lost
United's attack has kept pace (Michael Carrick's men only made their squad dominance count in their 5-2 battering of Ipswich Town) while conceding two per league game, and City bring Haaland has scored five goals in five matches this season, including three in the Premier League. Pack has Over 2.5 at 69% @1.51 and home form is W W W scoring freely, away form W W D W.
Why it lost: United kept it tight at 0-1 and City didn't add to Haaland's early goal, so the home form and firepower on both sides never turned into the extra goals backed.
The bigger price 6.09x
Pro
The model, aimed at a price rather than a strike rate
Expect this to lose more often than it wins. Stake it accordingly.
Real Sociedad or Draw at 1.59 the research, free, because it lost
Our model has this at 63 percent against a 62.1 percent break-even at 1.61, and 1.61 beats the 1.59 that the pack's own 2.90 home and 3.50 draw imply, so we are being paid over the fair cross-price. Atletico arrive on L L L W D from their last five while Sociedad's last five reads W D W L L from ninth in the table. The head to head also carries 4 draws in the last 9, and every draw settles this leg.
Why it lost: Atletico won 3-0, the draw form that priced this leg never showed and Sociedad's home run offered no resistance.
Refused today 4 refused
What we refused today, and why. Kill outcomes grade too, including the ones we get wrong.
The days ahead3 days
What the board has already locked for the 3 days ahead. Provisional, re-priced every morning.
Other sheets 13
The model board and the graded record