Benfica crestLech Poznan crest

Benfica v Lech Poznan bet builder

Thursday 5 November 2026, 20:00 · Europa League

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

  • Benfica to win

    74% the model

    Our board prices this at 74%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 50%.)

    1.35 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    80%+ the model

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 5.50 and 2.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

    1.01 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 73% chance all land
1.37

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Benfica v Lech Poznan, 73% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Benfica (first half) First Half 67% 1.53 +
  • Under 4.5 Goals 67% 1.44 +
  • Over 3.5 Goals 58% 1.83 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 53% 1.95 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • G. Prestianni Benfica
    Shots on target 1+

    G. Prestianni: 0.71 shots on target a game over 7 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • D. Lukebakio Benfica
    Shots on target 1+

    D. Lukebakio: 0.50 shots on target a game over 6 games [WC form: 2.37/90 over 1 games (38 min), 8% weight

  • P. Wålemark Lech Poznan
    Shots on target 1+

    P. Wålemark: 0.57 shots on target a game over 7 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • L. Palma Lech Poznan
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Palma: 0.57 shots on target a game over 7 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 10.5 Match Corners 42%
    Corners: Benfica avg 6.8 for/2.6 against, Lech Poznan avg 4.8 for/5.8 against so expected 10.0 match corners
  • Over 7.5 Match Corners 78%
    Corners: Benfica avg 6.8 for/2.6 against, Lech Poznan avg 4.8 for/5.8 against so expected 10.0 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 3.5 Match Cards 42%
    Cards: Benfica avg 2.1/game, Lech Poznan avg 1.2/game so expected 3.3 match cards
  • Over 1.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Benfica avg 2.1/game, Lech Poznan avg 1.2/game so expected 3.3 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 47%
    Fouls: Benfica avg 10.7/game, Lech Poznan avg 9.7/game so expected 20.3 match fouls
  • Over 16.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Benfica avg 10.7/game, Lech Poznan avg 9.7/game so expected 20.3 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 26.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Benfica avg 18.0/game, Lech Poznan avg 14.5/game so expected 32.5 match shots
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Benfica avg 18.0/game, Lech Poznan avg 14.5/game so expected 32.5 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Over 0.5 first half goals 85% market William Hill
    1.22 +
  • Benfica under 4.5 goals 85% market Bet365
    1.18 +
  • Under 3 second half goals 85% market Marathon Bet
    1.18 +
  • Benfica under 9.5 corners 85% market Betano
    1.18 +
  • Under 2.5 first half goals 83% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Under 12.5 corners 83% market Betano
    1.21 +
  • Benfica under 4 goals 81% market 1xBet
    1.27 +
  • Lech Poznan over 1.5 corners 81% market Betano
    1.24 +
  • Lech Poznan under 1 goals 80% market Marathon Bet
    1.32 +
  • Over 7.5 corners 80% market Betano
    1.25 +
  • Over 2.5 goals 79% market Bet365
    1.33 +
  • Benfica under 8.5 corners 75% market Betano
    1.33 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.