Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Newcastle?

Our model rates Newcastle as the favourite with a 38.1% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Tottenham 37.0%, draw 22.9%, Newcastle 38.1%.

Where can I watch Tottenham vs Newcastle?

Check official Premier League broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Tottenham vs Newcastle?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 60.5% probability and Under 2.5 goals 39.5%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 812 picks Premier League Saturday 29 August 2026, 17:30

Tottenham vs Newcastle Predictions & Odds

T Tottenham 37.0% @2.15

VS Draw 22.9%

N Newcastle 38.1% @3.20

Our model call Leans Newcastle, but only just A 38% call, draw at 23%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Tottenham 37% 2.15 Draw 23% 3.40 Newcastle 38% 3.20

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 40% 2.15 Over 2.5 60% 1.70 Over 1.5 @1.24

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 42% 2.25 Yes 58% 1.62

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Tottenham Win	37.0%	47.2%	10 pts under
Both Teams to Score	57.8%	63.7%	6 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	60.5%	58.8%	2 pts over

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 68% of Tottenham home games

01The read

Tottenham vs Newcastle: Too Close to Call?

Too close to call on the numbers. Tottenham 37%, Newcastle 38%, the draw live at 23%.

Newcastle slight edge (38%) | Three or more goals likely (61%) | Predicted: 1-2 Confidence ★★★★★

Tottenham (18th, 0 pts) host Newcastle (9th, 1 pts) in the Premier League. Both sides will be targeting three points here.

Our verdict

A razor-thin margin: Newcastle at 38%, but the draw sits at 23%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.

Our pick

Our PickThree or more goals at @1.70. Model probability 61% vs implied 59%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.

Model61%

Market59%

Key facts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 61% of Tottenham's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 61% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

Crucially, Tottenham are in strong home form while Newcastle are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Season-long, Newcastle average 1.0 points per game compared to Tottenham's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Tottenham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Newcastle create 1.6 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.

Goals are a tough one to call here. Tottenham are scoring 1.1 a game (1.1 of those at home) and Newcastle manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 58%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.5 goals when they meet, with 7 of the last 10 producing three or more. Two or more goals at @1.24 is a steadier alternative for accas.

Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 68% of Tottenham's home games and 53% of Newcastle's away matches.

▸ Team news & context

Tottenham need points desperately. Sitting 18th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.

Newcastle have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

In the last 10 meetings: Tottenham have won 1, Newcastle 6, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 3.5 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle, Newcastle 2-2 Tottenham, Newcastle 2-0 Tottenham, Tottenham 1-1 Newcastle.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%) and 1-3 (7%).

First Half Result

Tottenham HT 2.50
Draw HT 2.30
Newcastle HT 3.60

Team Intel

📊 Tottenham · xG

For: 1.16/g Against: 1.03/g

📊 Newcastle · xG

For: 1.56/g Against: 1.67/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Tottenham vs Newcastle Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Tottenham Win	@2.15	37.0%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.40	22.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Newcastle Win	@3.20	38.1%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.62	57.8%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.25	42.2%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.70	60.5%	BetVictor
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.15	39.5%	BetVictor
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.24	-	BetVictor
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.50	-	BetVictor
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.65	-	BetVictor
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.45	-	BetVictor

05The numbers

Recent Form

Tottenham

1L streak

Last 5 LWLDW

At home WDD

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 61% FTS 18%

Newcastle

1L streak

Last 5 LWDWL

On the road LDL

Clean sheets 21% BTTS 66% FTS 24%

Tottenham vs Newcastle Team Stats

Tottenham Hotspur FC

Position 18

Played 1

Record 0W-0D-1L

Goals F/A 0/3

Avg Goals Scored 1.14

Overall Form LWLDW

Home Form WDD

Home Record 0W-0D-0L

Newcastle United FC

Position 9

Played 1

Record 0W-1D-0L

Goals F/A 2/2

Avg Goals Scored 2.00

Points 1

Overall Form LWDWL

Away Form LDL

Away Record 0W-0D-0L

Tottenham vs Newcastle Head to Head

1 Home Wins 3 Draws 6 Away Wins

3.5 Avg Goals

8/10 BTTS

7/10 Over 2.5

2026-02-10 Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle

2025-12-02 Tottenham 2-2 Newcastle

2025-10-29 Tottenham 0-2 Newcastle

2025-08-03 Tottenham 1-1 Newcastle

2025-01-04 Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle

2024-09-01 Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle

2024-05-22 Tottenham 1-1 Newcastle

2024-04-13 Tottenham 0-4 Newcastle

2023-12-10 Tottenham 4-1 Newcastle

2023-04-23 Tottenham 1-6 Newcastle

Full Tottenham vs Newcastle head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-2 8.4%

1-3 7.0%

2-2 6.6%

2-3 5.5%

2-1 5.3%

0-3 4.4%

1-4 4.4%

2-4 3.4%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Tottenham under 2.5 goals 85% @1.23 Betano
Tottenham over 0.5 goals 85% @1.21 Betano
Under 14.5 corners 85% @1.18 Unibet
Over 1.5 goals 84% @1.25 Betano
Newcastle over 2.5 corners 83% @1.20 Unibet
Newcastle under 6.5 corners 83% @1.20 Unibet
Over 8.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
Under 2.5 second half goals 82% @1.27 Betano
Tottenham or Newcastle (double chance) 78% @1.33 1xBet
Tottenham over 4.5 corners 78% @1.28 Unibet
Newcastle over 0.5 goals 78% @1.32 1xBet
Over 0.5 first half goals 77% @1.38 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Tottenham v Newcastle builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 74% @ 1.35
2 Over 1.5 Goals 77% @ 1.30

@1.76 £10 returns £17.60

View full breakdown

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The record

70%

verified hit rate across 812 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Tottenham vs Newcastle: FAQs

Who will win Tottenham vs Newcastle?

Our model makes Newcastle the favourite with a 38.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Tottenham vs Newcastle?

Best available odds: Tottenham @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.40, Newcastle @ 3.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Tottenham vs Newcastle kick off?

Tottenham vs Newcastle kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 17:30 in the Premier League.

Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Newcastle?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 57.8% probability.

Tottenham vs Newcastle prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Newcastle to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.