Leeds vs Brentford Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Leeds have taken 7 points from their last five; Brentford have taken five points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Premier League tie.
Brentford are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.5 against 1.2 actual goals). They look due a few more. A concern for Brentford: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Leeds create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Brentford create 1.5 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Brentford are creating chances worth 1.5 a game but only finishing 1.2. the underlying performance is better than the results show. Brentford's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Leeds average 1.4 goals per game and Brentford manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.6. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 53% of Leeds's home games and 47% of Brentford's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Leeds Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Brentford Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Leeds vs Brentford kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 14:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.