Bournemouth vs Everton Predictions & Odds
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Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five; Everton are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Premier League tie.
Interestingly, Bournemouth look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.8 a game, but they're only converting 1.7 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Bournemouth come out at +0.5 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bournemouth create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. Everton create 1.3 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.3. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bournemouth. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Bournemouth should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game but they're only getting 1.7 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Bournemouth average 1.7 goals per game and Everton manage 1.3. Combined that's just 3.0. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%). Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Bournemouth and Everton together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 63% of Bournemouth's home games and 47% of Everton's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Bournemouth do it the hard way: only 1.7 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. The chance data suggests Bournemouth will create openings. The chances they create are worth 1.8 a game and Everton give up chances worth 1.6 on the road. Expect Bournemouth to see plenty of the ball.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 1-0 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bournemouth Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Everton Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Everton kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.