Chelsea vs Brighton Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Chelsea have lost three of their last five; Brighton have lost their last two. Form gives little away going into this Premier League tie.
Interestingly, Chelsea look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.3 a game, but they're only converting 0.8 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Brighton come out at +0.6 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Chelsea create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Brighton create 1.7 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +0.6. On the quality of chances, Brighton look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Chelsea should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.3 a game but they're only getting 0.8 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. A worry for Chelsea: the chances they're creating lately are worth 0.9 a game, well below their 1.3 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Chelsea average 0.8 goals per game and Brighton manage 1.5. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 58% of Chelsea's home games and 53% of Brighton's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%) and 0-1 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Chelsea Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Brighton Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Chelsea vs Brighton kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 14:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.