Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Our model rates Liverpool as the favourite with a 59.7% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Liverpool 59.7%, draw 20.3%, Nottingham Forest 16.2%.

Where can I watch Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Check official Premier League broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 56.6% probability and Under 2.5 goals 43.4%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 812 picks Premier League Saturday 29 August 2026, 12:30

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Predictions & Odds

L Liverpool 59.7% @1.50

VS Draw 20.3%

N Nottingham Forest 16.2% @6.00

Our model call Clear favourites: Liverpool A 60% call, draw at 20%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Liverpool 60% 1.50 Draw 20% 4.33 Nottingham Forest 16% 6.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 43% 2.40 Over 2.5 57% 1.57 Over 1.5 @1.17

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 44% 2.05 Yes 56% 1.73

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Liverpool Win	59.7%	70.4%	11 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	56.6%	63.7%	7 pts under
Both Teams to Score	56.4%	58.8%	2 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 68% of Liverpool home games

01The read

Analysing Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: Who Wins?

Liverpool 60%, the draw 20%, Nottingham Forest 16%. That's the shape of this one.

Liverpool slight edge (60%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Liverpool (9th, 1 pts) host Nottingham Forest (15th, 0 pts) in the Premier League. Both sides will be targeting three points here.

Our verdict

We lean towards Liverpool at 60%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.

Our pick

Our PickLiverpool to win at @1.50. Model probability 60% vs implied 67%. The market is 7pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model60%

Market67%

Key facts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 68% of Liverpool's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 57% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

Nottingham Forest have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Season-long, Liverpool average 1.0 points per game compared to Nottingham Forest's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Nottingham Forest could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.8 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.4. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. A concern for Nottingham Forest: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Liverpool create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Nottingham Forest create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Nottingham Forest are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.8 goals vs chance quality of 1.4). Both runs could cool off at once. Nottingham Forest's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.

Goals look likely here. Liverpool average 2.0 per game (2.0 at home) and Nottingham Forest chip in with 1.8 (1.8 away). Defensively, Liverpool concede 2.0 at home and Nottingham Forest leak 1.0 on the road. We make it 57% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%. Two or more goals at @1.17 is a steadier alternative for accas.

Both teams score in 68% of Liverpool's home games and 47% of Nottingham Forest's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.

Liverpool are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Nottingham Forest, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Nottingham Forest have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

In the last 9 meetings: Liverpool have won 5, Nottingham Forest 3, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 2.0 goals per game. 3 of the last 9 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool, Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham Forest, Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool, Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like Liverpool but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.12 , which pays out if Liverpool win or draw, covers 80% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 3-1 (4%).

First Half Result

Liverpool HT 1.95
Draw HT 2.45
Nottingham Forest HT 5.50

Team Intel

📊 Liverpool · xG

For: 1.48/g Against: 1.42/g

📊 Nottingham Forest · xG

For: 1.35/g Against: 1.53/g

⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.85/g, possibly running hot

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Liverpool Win	@1.50	59.7%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@4.33	20.3%	William Hill
Match Result	Nottingham Forest Win	@6.00	16.2%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.73	56.4%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.05	43.6%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.57	56.6%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.40	43.4%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.17	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@5.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.57	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Liverpool

1 unbeaten

Last 5 DLDLW

At home DDW

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 68% FTS 11%

Nottingham Forest

1L streak

Last 5 LDLDL

On the road LLWW

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 47% FTS 37%

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Team Stats

Liverpool FC

Position 9

Played 1

Record 0W-1D-0L

Goals F/A 2/2

Avg Goals Scored 2.00

Points 1

Overall Form DLDLW

Home Form DDW

Home Record 0W-0D-0L

Nottingham Forest FC

Position 15

Played 1

Record 0W-0D-1L

Goals F/A 0/1

Avg Goals Scored 1.80

Overall Form LDLDL

Away Form LLWW

Away Record 0W-0D-0L

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Head to Head

5 Home Wins 1 Draws 3 Away Wins

2.0 Avg Goals

2/9 BTTS

3/9 Over 2.5

2026-02-22 Liverpool 1-0 Forest

2025-11-22 Liverpool 0-3 Forest

2025-01-14 Liverpool 1-1 Forest

2024-09-14 Liverpool 0-1 Forest

2024-03-02 Liverpool 1-0 Forest

2023-10-29 Liverpool 3-0 Forest

2023-04-22 Liverpool 3-2 Forest

2022-10-22 Liverpool 0-1 Forest

2022-03-20 Liverpool 1-0 Forest

Full Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 7.1%

3-1 3.6%

3-2 3.4%

3-0 1.9%

4-1 1.3%

4-2 1.3%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Under 14.5 corners 85% @1.18 Unibet
Under 2 first half goals 84% @1.19 Marathon Bet
Liverpool under 3 goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Liverpool over 4.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
Nottingham Forest under 1.5 goals 82% @1.27 Betano
Under 4 goals 82% @1.26 Unibet
Over 8.5 corners 82% @1.22 Unibet
Liverpool under 9.5 corners 81% @1.23 Unibet
Under 2.5 second half goals 80% @1.32 Betano
Over 2 goals 80% @1.27 BetVictor
Nottingham Forest under 5.5 corners 79% @1.26 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 78% @1.32 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Liverpool v Nottingham Forest builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 83% @ 1.21
2 Under 3.5 Goals 61% @ 1.65
3 Both Teams to Score 59% @ 1.68

@3.35 £10 returns £33.54

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The record

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verified hit rate across 812 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: FAQs

Who will win Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Our model makes Liverpool the favourite with a 59.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Best available odds: Liverpool @ 1.50, Draw @ 4.33, Nottingham Forest @ 6.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest kick off?

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:30 in the Premier League.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 56.4% probability.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Liverpool to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.