03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Shrewsbury Town Win |
30.1% |
38.0% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
40.8% |
47.6% |
7 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🚨
Northampton Town have failed to score in 41% of matches
01The read
Can Northampton Town Get the Job Done at Shrewsbury Town?
Northampton Town have drawn a blank in 41% of their games this season. Shrewsbury Town's defence will fancy that.
Northampton Town slight edge (42%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Shrewsbury Town have lost their last two; Northampton Town have taken six points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Northampton Town at 42%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Northampton Town fail to score in 41% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
📉
Home Wobble
Shrewsbury Town arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
▸ Form & goals
Neither side has been putting the ball away much. Shrewsbury Town average just 0.4 goals per game and Northampton Town manage 0.7. This doesn't look like a high-scoring one.
Shrewsbury Town average 0.4 goals per game and Northampton Town manage 0.7. Combined that's just 1.1. We make it only 41% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 35% of Shrewsbury Town's home games and 43% of Northampton Town's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Shrewsbury Town vs Northampton Town Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Shrewsbury Town Win |
@2.75
|
30.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.00
|
28.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Northampton Town Win |
@2.50
|
41.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.15
|
40.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.62
|
59.2% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-1
17.5%
0-0
12.9%
1-1
12.1%
0-2
11.9%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
3.1%