03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Rotherham United Win |
25.4% |
30.8% |
5 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
53.4% |
57.1% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Analysing Rotherham United vs Salford City: Who Wins?
The model makes Salford City 49% favourites here. Rotherham United carry the 25% upset.
Salford City slight edge (49%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Rotherham United have taken five points from their last five; Salford City have lost three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Salford City at 49%, but the draw sits at 26%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Rotherham United fail to score in 43% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
▸ Form & goals
Rotherham United average 1.3 goals per game and Salford City manage 0.9. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it 53% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line.
Both teams score in 52% of Rotherham United's home games and 48% of Salford City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Rotherham United vs Salford City Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Rotherham United Win |
@3.30
|
25.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
25.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Salford City Win |
@2.00
|
48.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.80
|
53.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.91
|
46.6% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-1
9.3%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
4.2%
0-3
3.3%
2-3
2.7%
1-4
1.5%
0-4
1.2%