03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Crawley Town Win |
34.6% |
44.4% |
10 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
55.7% |
59.9% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 9.5 Match Corners
45% (model)
Corners: Crawley Town avg 3.0 for/6.2 against, Cheltenham Town avg 5.3 for/4.0 against → expected 9.3 match corners
-
Over 3.5 Match Cards
50% (model)
Cards: Crawley Town avg 2.0/game, Cheltenham Town avg 1.7/game → expected 3.7 match cards
-
Over 20.5 Match Fouls
56% (model)
Fouls: Crawley Town avg 10.0/game, Cheltenham Town avg 11.3/game → expected 21.3 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
55% (model)
Shots: Crawley Town avg 12.0/game, Cheltenham Town avg 11.3/game → expected 23.3 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Crawley Town Host Cheltenham Town: Our Prediction
35% against 39%: the model can barely split Crawley Town and Cheltenham Town.
Cheltenham Town slight edge (39%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Crawley Town have lost three of their last five; Cheltenham Town have taken 8 points from their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Cheltenham Town edge it at 39% but a draw (26%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 56% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Crawley Town are scoring 0.9 a game (0.9 of those at home) and Cheltenham Town manage 1.7 (1.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 56%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams score in 57% of Crawley Town's home games and 52% of Cheltenham Town's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Crawley Town vs Cheltenham Town Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Crawley Town Win |
@2.38
|
34.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
26.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Cheltenham Town Win |
@2.75
|
39.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
55.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.05
|
44.3% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
4.7%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
3.3%
3-2
3.3%
2-3
3.0%