03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| York City Win |
53.0% |
62.5% |
10 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
58.1% |
61.0% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
York City vs Swindon Town: Match Preview & Prediction
York City 53%, the draw 23%, Swindon Town 24%. That's the shape of this one.
York City slight edge (53%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
York City have taken 8 points from their last five; Swindon Town have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: York City at 53%, but the draw sits at 23%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 83% of York City's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. York City are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Swindon Town manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 83% of York City's home games and 52% of Swindon Town's away matches.
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 York City · xG
For: 1.24/g
Against: 1.43/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
York City vs Swindon Town Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
York City Win |
@1.75
|
53.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
23.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Swindon Town Win |
@4.00
|
23.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
58.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.05
|
41.9% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.1%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
3.4%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.6%
4-2
1.3%