03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Grimsby Town Win |
39.5% |
46.5% |
7 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
54.8% |
58.8% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
51% (model)
Corners: Grimsby Town avg 5.7 for/4.7 against, Bristol Rovers avg 3.2 for/4.0 against → expected 8.8 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
51% (model)
Cards: Grimsby Town avg 1.3/game, Bristol Rovers avg 3.4/game → expected 4.7 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
72% (model)
Fouls: Grimsby Town avg 11.7/game, Bristol Rovers avg 16.0/game → expected 27.7 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
65% (model)
Shots: Grimsby Town avg 13.3/game, Bristol Rovers avg 15.4/game → expected 28.7 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🔥
Bristol Rovers are on a 4-game winning streak
01The read
Grimsby Town vs Bristol Rovers: Too Close to Call?
Bristol Rovers arrive on a 4-game winning run, yet the model still only gives them 36% here.
Grimsby Town slight edge (40%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Grimsby Town are unbeaten in their last five; Bristol Rovers have won four straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Grimsby Town at just 40%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Grimsby Town, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🔥
Travelling Hot
Bristol Rovers bring a 4-game winning run into this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Grimsby Town are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Bristol Rovers manage 1.9 (1.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams score in 48% of Grimsby Town's home games and 57% of Bristol Rovers's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Bristol Rovers have goals in them (1.9 per game) but their record at the back (1.1 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Grimsby Town vs Bristol Rovers Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Grimsby Town Win |
@2.25
|
39.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
24.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Bristol Rovers Win |
@2.88
|
35.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.73
|
54.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.00
|
45.2% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
1-3
5.4%