03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Barnet Win |
57.3% |
65.4% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
60.5% |
63.7% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 61% of Barnet home games
01The read
Barnet Host Accrington Stanley: Our Prediction
The model makes Barnet 57% favourites here. Accrington Stanley carry the 20% upset.
Barnet slight edge (57%) | Three or more goals likely (61%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Barnet are unbeaten in their last five; Accrington Stanley have taken five points from their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
Barnet shade it at 57%, though Accrington Stanley won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Barnet with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickBarnet to win at @1.57. Model probability 57% vs implied 64%. The market is 6pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 61% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals look likely here. Barnet average 2.1 per game (2.1 at home) and Accrington Stanley chip in with 1.4 (1.4 away). Defensively, Barnet concede 1.6 at home and Accrington Stanley leak 2.3 on the road. We make it 61% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming.
Both teams score in 61% of Barnet's home games and 39% of Accrington Stanley's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Barnet are all-out attack: 2.1 goals a game, but they leak 1.6 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Accrington Stanley, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Barnet vs Accrington Stanley Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Barnet Win |
@1.57
|
57.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
23.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Accrington Stanley Win |
@5.00
|
19.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.62
|
60.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.20
|
39.5% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.0%
3-1
6.6%
3-2
5.0%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3.7%
4-2
2.7%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.6%