03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Draw |
27.3% |
32.3% |
5 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
51.2% |
54.6% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Analysing Oldham Athletic vs Chesterfield FC: Who Wins?
The model makes Oldham Athletic 46% favourites here. Chesterfield FC carry the 39% upset.
Oldham Athletic slight edge (46%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Oldham Athletic have taken 7 points from their last five; Chesterfield FC have taken five points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Oldham Athletic edge it at 46% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 61% of Chesterfield FC's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Oldham Athletic average 1.4 goals per game and Chesterfield FC manage 0.9. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it 51% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line.
Both teams score in 43% of Oldham Athletic's home games and 65% of Chesterfield FC's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Oldham Athletic vs Chesterfield FC Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Oldham Athletic Win |
@2.40
|
46.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.10
|
27.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Chesterfield FC Win |
@2.88
|
38.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.85
|
51.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.85
|
48.8% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
13.9%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.3%
3-0
3.7%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
1.7%
4-0
1.2%
4-1
1.1%