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Olympiakos Piraeus 65%, the draw 20%, Jagiellonia Białystok 15%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open Olympiakos Piraeus at @1.33 for this Europa League tie, with Jagiellonia Białystok out at @7.50.
Our PickOlympiakos Piraeus to win at @1.33. Model probability 65% vs implied 75%. The market is 10pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
The odds point towards goals. We make it 61% for three or more.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Olympiakos Piraeus Win | @1.33 | 65.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.50 | 19.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Jagiellonia Białystok Win | @7.50 | 15.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.57 | 60.6% | LeoVegas |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.33 | 39.4% | LeoVegas |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite with a 65.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Olympiakos Piraeus @ 1.33, Draw @ 4.50, Jagiellonia Białystok @ 7.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia Białystok kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 in the Europa League.