Get the model's verified verdict on Bayer Leverkusen (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Bayer Leverkusen 68%, the draw 16%, NK Celje 16%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open Bayer Leverkusen at @1.17 for this Europa League tie, with NK Celje out at @12.00.
Our PickBayer Leverkusen to win at @1.17. Model probability 68% vs implied 85%. The market is 17pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Bayer Leverkusen average 2.0 goals per game and NK Celje manage 0.0. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Bayer Leverkusen are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.8 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at NK Celje, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. NK Celje prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Bayer Leverkusen against this setup. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%) and 2-0 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bayer Leverkusen Win | @1.17 | 68.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @6.00 | 15.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | NK Celje Win | @12.00 | 16.2% | William Hill |
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite with a 68.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.17, Draw @ 6.00, NK Celje @ 12.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 in the Europa League.