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The model makes Sparta Prague 56% favourites here. FC Ararat-Armenia carry the 20% upset.
The bookmakers open FC Ararat-Armenia at @4.50 for this Europa League tie, with Sparta Prague out at @1.62.
Sandro Lima has been FC Ararat-Armenia's spearhead, with 1 goals and 0 assists in 6 appearances. Whoever leads Sparta Prague's line will have a job on against that profile.
Our PickSparta Prague to win at @1.62. Model probability 56% vs implied 62%. The market is 6pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 60% for three or more.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Ararat-Armenia Win | @4.50 | 19.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 24.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sparta Prague Win | @1.62 | 56.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.65 | 59.6% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 40.4% | Grosvenor |
Our model makes Sparta Prague the favourite with a 56.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: FC Ararat-Armenia @ 4.50, Draw @ 4.00, Sparta Prague @ 1.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
FC Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 17:45 in the Europa League.