01The read
Analysing Anderlecht vs Lyon: Who Wins?
The model makes Lyon 51% favourites here. Anderlecht carry the 23% upset.
Anderlecht have won four of their last six; Lyon have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Europa League tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.60. Model probability 61% vs implied 63%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
Anderlecht keep clean sheets in 50% of games. One of the tightest defences around
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Lyon's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 61% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Lyon are no pushovers away from home. W3 D1 L1 from 5 away trips, scoring 1.8 per game on the road. Anderlecht (W1 D0 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Season-long, Lyon average 2.1 points per game compared to Anderlecht's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Anderlecht are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Lyon manage 1.9 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Lyon are similarly well-balanced. 1.9 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides. Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (10%) and 0-3 (6%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Lyon · xG
For: 1.57/g
Against: 1.51/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Anderlecht vs Lyon Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Anderlecht Win |
@3.50
|
22.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
23.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Lyon Win |
@1.91
|
51.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.60
|
60.6% |
Grosvenor |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.30
|
39.4% |
Grosvenor |
05The numbers
Anderlecht vs Lyon Team Stats
Anderlecht
Played
2
Record
1W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
2/3
Avg Goals Scored
1.00
Overall Form
LWWLWW
Home Record
1W-0D-0L
Lyon
Position
1
Played
10
Record
7W-1D-2L
Goals F/A
19/8
Avg Goals Scored
1.90
Points
21
Overall Form
DWLLW
Away Form
WL
Away Record
3W-1D-1L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.7%
0-3
6.1%
1-3
5.5%
0-4
2.6%
2-3
2.5%
1-4
2.3%
2-4
1.0%