03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Gillingham Win |
31.8% |
40.8% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
47.7% |
50.5% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Analysing Gillingham vs Tranmere Rovers: Who Wins?
The model makes Tranmere Rovers 40% favourites here. Gillingham carry the 32% upset.
Tranmere Rovers slight edge (40%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Gillingham have taken six points from their last five; Tranmere Rovers are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Tranmere Rovers edge it at 40% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Gillingham are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Tranmere Rovers manage 1.7 (1.7 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 48%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Gillingham's home games and 65% of Tranmere Rovers's away matches.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Gillingham vs Tranmere Rovers Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Gillingham Win |
@2.62
|
31.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.00
|
28.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Tranmere Rovers Win |
@2.62
|
40.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.00
|
47.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.73
|
52.3% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.5%
1-2
9.2%
0-2
8.6%
1-0
8.2%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
4.9%