03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Colchester United Win |
42.9% |
48.1% |
5 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
52.0% |
55.6% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Colchester United vs Crewe Alexandra: Can the Hosts Deliver?
Colchester United 43%, the draw 26%, Crewe Alexandra 31%. That's the shape of this one.
Colchester United slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Colchester United have lost their last two; Crewe Alexandra have taken six points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this League Two tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Colchester United edge it at 43% but a draw (26%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📉
Home Wobble
Colchester United arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Colchester United are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Crewe Alexandra manage 1.1 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams score in 57% of Colchester United's home games and 57% of Crewe Alexandra's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Crewe Alexandra prefer to keep things tight (0.9 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Colchester United against this setup.
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Colchester United vs Crewe Alexandra Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Colchester United Win |
@2.10
|
42.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
26.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Crewe Alexandra Win |
@3.20
|
30.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.85
|
52.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.85
|
48.0% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.0%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.6%
0-0
8.2%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.4%
2-0
5.4%