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40% against 36%: the model can barely split Besiktas JK and Marseille.
The bookmakers open Besiktas JK at @2.20 for this Europa League tie, with Marseille out at @3.00.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.62. Model probability 61% vs implied 62%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Besiktas JK average 0.0 goals per game and Marseille manage 1.5. Combined that's just 1.5. Even so, we make it 61% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Besiktas JK do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (4%) and 2-1 (3%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Besiktas JK Win | @2.20 | 40.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 23.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Marseille Win | @3.00 | 36.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.62 | 61.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.25 | 38.7% | William Hill |
Our model makes Besiktas JK the favourite with a 40.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Besiktas JK @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.60, Marseille @ 3.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Besiktas JK vs Marseille kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:00 in the Europa League.