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Celtic 54%, the draw 21%, Ferencváros TC 24%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open Celtic at @1.73 for this Europa League tie, with Ferencváros TC out at @4.40.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.50. Model probability 63% vs implied 67%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Celtic's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
Celtic average 1.5 goals per game and Ferencváros TC manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.5. Even so, we make it 63% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Celtic need points desperately. Sitting 21st in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Ferencváros TC prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Celtic against this setup. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (5%) and 3-0 (1%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Celtic Win | @1.73 | 53.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.90 | 20.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Ferencváros TC Win | @4.40 | 24.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.50 | 63.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.50 | 36.9% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Celtic the favourite with a 53.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Celtic @ 1.73, Draw @ 3.90, Ferencváros TC @ 4.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Celtic vs Ferencváros TC kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:00 in the Europa League.