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OFI Crete 17%, the draw 24%, TSG Hoffenheim 59%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open OFI Crete at @6.50 for this Europa League tie, with TSG Hoffenheim out at @1.44.
Our PickTSG Hoffenheim to win at @1.44. Model probability 59% vs implied 69%. The market is 11pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
OFI Crete average 0.0 goals per game and TSG Hoffenheim manage 1.5. Combined that's just 1.5. Even so, we make it 61% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
OFI Crete do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (5%) and 1-3 (1%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | OFI Crete Win | @6.50 | 16.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 24.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | TSG Hoffenheim Win | @1.44 | 58.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.64 | 60.6% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.23 | 39.4% | Grosvenor |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes TSG Hoffenheim the favourite with a 58.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: OFI Crete @ 6.50, Draw @ 4.00, TSG Hoffenheim @ 1.44. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
OFI Crete vs TSG Hoffenheim kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 17:45 in the Europa League.