Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
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Over 10.5 Match Corners
47% (model)
Corners: Juventus avg 6.3 for/4.1 against, NEC Nijmegen avg 7.7 for/2.8 against → expected 10.4 match corners
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Over 4.5 Match Cards
39% (model)
Cards: Juventus avg 2.3/game, NEC Nijmegen avg 1.8/game → expected 4.1 match cards
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Over 24.5 Match Fouls
59% (model)
Fouls: Juventus avg 13.1/game, NEC Nijmegen avg 12.7/game → expected 25.8 match fouls
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Over 26.5 Match Shots
89% (model)
Shots: Juventus avg 14.7/game, NEC Nijmegen avg 18.8/game → expected 33.5 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🛡
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 57% of games this season
01The read
Analysing Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen: Who Wins?
Juventus 68%, the draw 18%, NEC Nijmegen 14%. That's the shape of this one.
Juventus have won three of their last five; NEC Nijmegen have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Europa League tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickJuventus to win at @1.25. Model probability 68% vs implied 80%. The market is 12pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
Juventus keep clean sheets in 57% of games. One of the tightest defences around
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 86% of NEC Nijmegen's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Juventus average 1.0 goals per game and NEC Nijmegen manage 1.7. Combined that's just 2.7. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Juventus do it the hard way: only 1.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.7 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (7%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Juventus · xG
For: 1.89/g
Against: 0.81/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.79/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Juventus Win |
@1.25
|
68.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@5.00
|
17.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
NEC Nijmegen Win |
@10.00
|
13.8% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
10.9%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
2.5%
3-0
2.1%
3-2
1.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 1 priced markets
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Juventus to win
82%
@1.30
Betfred (UK)
Build a slip from these markets →