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The model makes Crystal Palace 63% favourites here. Lech Poznań carry the 17% upset.
The bookmakers open Crystal Palace at @1.40 for this Europa League tie, with Lech Poznań out at @6.50.
Our PickCrystal Palace to win at @1.40. Model probability 63% vs implied 71%. The market is 9pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Crystal Palace average 1.2 goals per game and Lech Poznań manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.2. Even so, we make it 60% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Lech Poznań prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Crystal Palace against this setup. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Crystal Palace Win | @1.40 | 62.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.33 | 20.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Lech Poznań Win | @6.50 | 16.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.66 | 60.3% | Grosvenor |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.20 | 39.7% | Grosvenor |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Crystal Palace the favourite with a 62.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Crystal Palace @ 1.40, Draw @ 4.33, Lech Poznań @ 6.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznań kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:00 in the Europa League.