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PFC Levski Sofia 31%, the draw 26%, Salzburg 44%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open PFC Levski Sofia at @2.80 for this Europa League tie, with Salzburg out at @2.38.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.57. Model probability 62% vs implied 64%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
PFC Levski Sofia average 0.0 goals per game and Salzburg manage 1.3. Combined that's just 1.3. Even so, we make it 62% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
PFC Levski Sofia do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (6%) and 1-2 (4%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | PFC Levski Sofia Win | @2.80 | 30.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 25.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Salzburg Win | @2.38 | 43.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.57 | 62.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.30 | 37.6% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Salzburg the favourite with a 43.6% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: PFC Levski Sofia @ 2.80, Draw @ 3.50, Salzburg @ 2.38. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
PFC Levski Sofia vs Salzburg kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 17:45 in the Europa League.