Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
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Over 8.5 Match Corners
39% (model)
Corners: AC Milan avg 3.3 for/3.4 against, Benfica avg 7.4 for/1.6 against → expected 7.9 match corners
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Over 2.5 Match Cards
35% (model)
Cards: AC Milan avg 1.4/game, Benfica avg 0.7/game → expected 2.1 match cards
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Over 20.5 Match Fouls
43% (model)
Fouls: AC Milan avg 10.1/game, Benfica avg 9.7/game → expected 19.9 match fouls
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Over 26.5 Match Shots
79% (model)
Shots: AC Milan avg 14.0/game, Benfica avg 17.0/game → expected 31.0 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Analysing AC Milan vs Benfica: Who Wins?
AC Milan 46%, the draw 25%, Benfica 29%. That's the shape of this one.
AC Milan have won three of their last five; Benfica are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this Europa League tie.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 86% of Benfica's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals look likely here. AC Milan average 1.3 per game (1.3 at home) and Benfica chip in with 3.1 (3.1 away). Defensively, AC Milan concede 1.3 at home and Benfica leak 1.3 on the road. We make it 58% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Benfica have goals in them (3.1 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (6%) and 3-2 (3%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 AC Milan · xG
For: 1.27/g
Against: 1.29/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.37/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
AC Milan vs Benfica Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
AC Milan Win |
@1.91
|
45.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
25.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Benfica Win |
@3.50
|
29.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.65
|
58.3% |
Grosvenor |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.20
|
41.7% |
Grosvenor |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
5.5%
3-2
2.6%
3-1
2.4%
3-0
1.1%