01The read
Watford Host Peterborough: Our Prediction
Watford have failed to score in 43% of their games, and now the model gives Peterborough a 22% chance on the road.
Watford have taken 7 points from their last five; Peterborough have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.57. Model probability 61% vs implied 64%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Watford fail to score in 43% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Peterborough's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 61% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Neither side has been putting the ball away much. Watford average just 0.7 goals per game and Peterborough manage 0.9. This doesn't look like a high-scoring one.
Watford average 0.7 goals per game and Peterborough manage 0.9. Combined that's just 1.6. Even so, we make it 61% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.8 goals when they meet, with 3 of the last 4 producing three or more.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 4 meetings: Watford have won 2, Peterborough 1, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.8 goals per game. 3 of the last 4 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Peterborough 3-2 Watford, Watford 1-0 Peterborough, Peterborough 2-2 Watford.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Watford HT
2.00
-
Draw HT
2.50
-
Peterborough HT
4.75
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Watford · xG
For: 1.09/g
Against: 1.66/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.39/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Watford vs Peterborough Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Watford Win |
@1.62
|
53.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
24.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Peterborough Win |
@4.40
|
22.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.62
|
53.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.20
|
46.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.57
|
61.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.38
|
39.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.55
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Watford vs Peterborough Head to Head
2 Home Wins
1 Draws
1 Away Wins
3.8
Avg Goals
3/4
BTTS
3/4
Over 2.5
2013-04-13
Watford 2-3 Peterborough
2012-10-20
Watford 1-0 Peterborough
2012-04-21
Watford 2-2 Peterborough
2011-10-29
Watford 3-2 Peterborough
Full Watford vs Peterborough head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
6.9%
3-1
2.7%
3-2
2.1%
3-0
1.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Watford or Peterborough (double chance)
85%
@1.25
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
85%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Watford under 8 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Watford over 4.5 corners
83%
@1.37
Unibet
-
Under 12 corners
83%
@1.21
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
82%
@1.32
Betano
-
Over 2 goals
82%
@1.26
BetVictor
-
Under 2 first half goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.33
Betano
-
Under 4 goals
79%
@1.27
BetVictor
-
Over 1 second half goals
78%
@1.29
Marathon Bet
-
Peterborough under 1.5 goals
75%
@1.38
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →