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Too close to call on the numbers. Cardiff 34%, Norwich 38%, the draw live at 28%.
Cardiff have won three of their last five; Norwich have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Cardiff are scoring 2.8 a game (2.8 of those at home) and Norwich manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 51%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
Cardiff are all-out attack: 2.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.8 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Norwich, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Norwich have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.4 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cardiff Win | @2.30 | 34.4% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Norwich Win | @2.88 | 38.0% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 49.9% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 50.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.91 | 49.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.59 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.34 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Norwich the favourite with a 38.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Cardiff @ 2.30, Draw @ 3.25, Norwich @ 2.88. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cardiff vs Norwich kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:00 in the EFL Cup.