01The read
Analysing Ipswich vs Leicester: Who Wins?
The model makes Ipswich 51% favourites here. Leicester carry the 25% upset.
Ipswich are unbeaten in their last four; Leicester are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
Ipswich keep clean sheets in 50% of games. One of the tightest defences around
🔥
Chances Flowing
Ipswich creating chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 60% of Leicester's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 59% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Interestingly, Ipswich look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.9 a game, but they're only converting 1.8 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. Leicester are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.7 against 1.2 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Ipswich create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Leicester create 1.7 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.6. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Ipswich should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game but they're only getting 1.8 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Leicester are creating chances worth 1.7 a game but only finishing 1.2. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Ipswich are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Leicester manage 1.2 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 59%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Ipswich create chances worth 1.9 a game and Leicester 1.7. Combined, that's 3.6 a game from open play alone.
▸ Team news & context
Ipswich do it the hard way: only 1.8 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Leicester prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Ipswich against this setup. Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Ipswich HT
2.30
-
Draw HT
2.45
-
Leicester HT
4.70
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Ipswich · xG
For: 1.91/g
Against: 1.13/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.31/g, value possible
📊 Leicester · xG
For: 1.72/g
Against: 1.10/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.72/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Ipswich vs Leicester Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Ipswich Win |
@1.75
|
51.4% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.75
|
23.4% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Leicester Win |
@3.90
|
25.2% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.62
|
53.1% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.25
|
46.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.65
|
59.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.25
|
40.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.38
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.4%
3-0
3.6%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
1.7%
4-0
1.2%
4-1
1.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Ipswich or Leicester (double chance)
85%
@1.27
Marathon Bet
-
Over 6.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Under 4 goals
84%
@1.24
BetVictor
-
Ipswich over 1 goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
80%
@1.29
Betano
-
Ipswich under 7.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Over 2 goals
79%
@1.29
BetVictor
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
78%
@1.34
Betano
-
Under 11.5 corners
78%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Ipswich under 2.5 goals
77%
@1.35
Marathon Bet
-
Leicester under 1.5 goals
77%
@1.40
Bet365
-
Over 1 second half goals
76%
@1.32
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →