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The model makes Middlesbrough 59% favourites here. Doncaster carry the 17% upset.
Doncaster have taken five points from their last five; Middlesbrough have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this EFL Cup tie.
Our PickMiddlesbrough to win at @1.50. Model probability 59% vs implied 67%. The market is 8pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Doncaster are scoring 1.2 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Middlesbrough manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 60%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
Middlesbrough prefer to keep things tight (0.9 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Doncaster against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Doncaster Win | @5.25 | 17.3% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.33 | 23.7% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Middlesbrough Win | @1.50 | 59.0% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.91 | 50.2% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.11 | 49.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 60.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.28 | 39.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.47 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Middlesbrough the favourite with a 59.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Doncaster @ 5.25, Draw @ 4.33, Middlesbrough @ 1.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Doncaster vs Middlesbrough kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:30 in the EFL Cup.