03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Draw |
27.5% |
34.5% |
7 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
44.5% |
51.3% |
7 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
40.0% |
44.1% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 10.5 Match Corners
45% (model)
Corners: Parma avg 2.7 for/8.7 against, Cagliari avg 5.0 for/4.3 against → expected 10.3 match corners
-
Over 2.5 Match Cards
32% (model)
Cards: Parma avg 0.7/game, Cagliari avg 1.3/game → expected 2.0 match cards
-
Over 20.5 Match Fouls
37% (model)
Fouls: Parma avg 10.7/game, Cagliari avg 8.5/game → expected 19.2 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
53% (model)
Shots: Parma avg 10.0/game, Cagliari avg 13.0/game → expected 23.0 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Parma vs Cagliari
The model makes Parma 46% favourites here. Cagliari carry the 40% upset.
Parma slight edge (46%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Parma have lost three of their last five; Cagliari have won three of their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Serie A tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Parma edge it at 46% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
Our model spots value here: Cagliari to win at @3.10 (our model: 40%, bookmakers imply: 32%). A 8% edge over the market.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Parma fail to score in 42% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
▸ Form & goals
The gap in chance quality is clear: Cagliari come out at -0.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.9. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Parma create chances worth 0.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.9 a game on the balance. Cagliari create 1.3 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.1. On the quality of chances, Cagliari look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Parma average 0.8 goals per game and Cagliari manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 40% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Both teams score in 47% of Parma's home games and 63% of Cagliari's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
In the last 10 meetings: Parma have won 1, Cagliari 5, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.9 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Parma 1-1 Cagliari, Cagliari 2-0 Parma, Cagliari 2-1 Parma, Parma 2-3 Cagliari.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Parma but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.36 , which pays out if Parma win or draw, covers 73% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (10%) and 2-0 (5%).
First Half Result
-
Parma HT
3.00
-
Draw HT
2.00
-
Cagliari HT
3.60
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Parma · xG
For: 0.69/g
Against: 1.58/g
📊 Cagliari · xG
For: 1.29/g
Against: 1.41/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Parma vs Cagliari Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Parma Win |
@2.45
|
45.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@2.90
|
27.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Cagliari Win |
@3.10
|
40.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.95
|
44.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.80
|
55.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.50
|
40.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.62
|
60.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@2.86
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Parma vs Cagliari Head to Head
1 Home Wins
4 Draws
5 Away Wins
2.9
Avg Goals
7/10
BTTS
5/10
Over 2.5
2026-02-27
Parma 1-1 Cagliari
2025-09-13
Parma 0-2 Cagliari
2025-02-09
Parma 1-2 Cagliari
2024-09-30
Parma 2-3 Cagliari
2023-06-03
Parma 0-0 Cagliari
2023-05-30
Parma 2-3 Cagliari
2023-04-22
Parma 2-1 Cagliari
2022-12-03
Parma 1-1 Cagliari
2021-04-17
Parma 3-4 Cagliari
2020-12-16
Parma 0-0 Cagliari
Full Parma vs Cagliari head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
10.0%
2-0
5.0%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Over 1.5 goals
70%
@1.50
Bet365
-
Under 11.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.30
Superbet
-
Under 5.5 cards
83%
@1.43
Pinnacle
-
David Romero 1+ shots on target
69%
@1.44
Bet365
-
Gennaro Borrelli 1+ shots on target
69%
@1.44
Bet365
Combined 5.78
· £5 returns
£28.91
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Jacopo Fazzini 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Under 11.5 corners
85%
@1.30
Superbet
-
Oliver Sorensen 1+ shots
83%
@1.20
Bet365
-
Under 5.5 cards
83%
@1.43
Pinnacle
-
Over 7 corners
83%
@1.21
1xBet
-
Parma under 6.5 corners
82%
@1.30
Superbet
-
Cagliari over 2.5 corners
82%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Under 3 goals
81%
@1.27
Pinnacle
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
80%
@1.32
Betano
-
Cagliari under 1.5 goals
79%
@1.34
1xBet
-
Cagliari under 5.5 corners
79%
@1.35
Superbet
-
Parma under 6 corners
78%
@1.28
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →