Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Napoli?

Our model rates Napoli as the favourite with a 51.1% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Genoa 19.5%, draw 29.3%, Napoli 51.1%.

Where can I watch Genoa vs Napoli?

Check official Serie A broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Genoa vs Napoli?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 32.7% probability and Under 2.5 goals 67.3%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 766 picks Serie A Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:45

Genoa vs Napoli Predictions & Odds

G Genoa 19.5% @4.40

VS Draw 29.3%

N Napoli 51.1% @1.85

Our model call Leans Napoli, but only just A 51% call, draw at 29%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Genoa 20% 4.40 Draw 29% 3.20 Napoli 51% 1.85

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 67% 1.70 Over 2.5 33% 2.30 Over 1.5 @1.40

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 57% 1.75 Yes 43% 2.05

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	32.7%	46.7%	14 pts under
Both Teams to Score	42.8%	51.0%	8 pts under
Genoa Win	19.5%	26.0%	7 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Match Stats

Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.

Over 8.5 Match Corners 46% (model) Corners: Genoa avg 4.5 for/3.5 against, Napoli avg 6.4 for/2.4 against → expected 8.4 match corners
Over 2.5 Match Cards 48% (model) Cards: Genoa avg 1.3/game, Napoli avg 1.3/game → expected 2.6 match cards
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 20% (model) Fouls: Genoa avg 9.8/game, Napoli avg 7.2/game → expected 17.0 match fouls
Over 26.5 Match Shots 58% (model) Shots: Genoa avg 12.0/game, Napoli avg 15.7/game → expected 27.7 match shots

Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Key Stats

01The read

Genoa vs Napoli: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?

Genoa 20%, the draw 29%, Napoli 51%. That's the shape of this one.

Napoli slight edge (51%) | Lower-scoring game likely (67%) | Predicted: 0-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Genoa are winless in their last five; Napoli have won three of their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Serie A tie.

Our verdict

Too close to call with any conviction. Napoli edge it at 51% but a draw (29%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

📉

Home Wobble Genoa arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early

▸ Form & goals

The gap in chance quality is clear: Napoli come out at +0.4 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Genoa create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Napoli create 1.3 (giving up 0.9) for a balance of +0.4. On the quality of chances, Napoli look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.

Genoa average 0.5 goals per game and Napoli manage 2.0. Combined that's just 2.5. We make it only 33% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 43%.

Both teams score in 47% of Genoa's home games and 37% of Napoli's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Napoli are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (19%) and 0-2 (15%).

First Half Result

Genoa HT 4.60
Draw HT 2.05
Napoli HT 2.50

Team Intel

📊 Genoa · xG

For: 0.96/g Against: 1.31/g

📊 Napoli · xG

For: 1.30/g Against: 0.92/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Genoa vs Napoli Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Genoa Win	@4.40	19.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.20	29.3%	William Hill
Match Result	Napoli Win	@1.85	51.1%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@2.05	42.8%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.75	57.2%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.30	32.7%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.70	67.3%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.15	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@4.33	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.24	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Genoa

2L streak

Last 5 LLDDL

At home LL

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 53% FTS 39%

Napoli

2W streak

Last 5 WWLDW

On the road WD

Clean sheets 39% BTTS 47% FTS 21%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-1 19.3%

0-2 14.5%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Under 3.5 goals 84% @1.24 Unibet
Genoa under 1.5 goals 84% @1.23 Betano
Under 2 second half goals 84% @1.19 Marathon Bet
Over 0.5 second half goals 82% @1.34 Betano
Genoa or Napoli (double chance) 81% @1.36 Marathon Bet
Under 10.5 corners 81% @1.32 Unibet
Napoli under 6.5 corners 80% @1.32 Unibet
Over 6.5 corners 79% @1.31 Betano
Under 1.5 first half goals 78% @1.39 Betano
Under 3 goals 77% @1.36 Unibet
Napoli under 2 goals 77% @1.30 Marathon Bet
Genoa under 4.5 corners 76% @1.33 Unibet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Genoa v Napoli builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Napoli or Draw 81% @ 1.23
2 Over 1.5 Goals 73% @ 1.36
3 Both Teams to Score - No 57% @ 1.75

@2.93 £10 returns £29.30

View full breakdown

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 766 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Genoa vs Napoli: FAQs

Who will win Genoa vs Napoli?

Our model makes Napoli the favourite with a 51.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Genoa vs Napoli?

Best available odds: Genoa @ 4.40, Draw @ 3.20, Napoli @ 1.85. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Genoa vs Napoli kick off?

Genoa vs Napoli kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.

Will both teams score in Genoa vs Napoli?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 42.8% probability.

Genoa vs Napoli prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Napoli to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.