Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Our model rates Atalanta as the favourite with a 58.9% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Atalanta 58.9%, draw 22.9%, Sassuolo 18.2%.

Where can I watch Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Check official Serie A broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 44.2% probability and Under 2.5 goals 55.8%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 766 picks Serie A Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:45

Atalanta vs Sassuolo Predictions & Odds

A Atalanta 58.9% @1.53

VS Draw 22.9%

S Sassuolo 18.2% @5.50

Our model call Clear favourites: Atalanta A 59% call, draw at 23%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Atalanta 59% 1.53 Draw 23% 4.00 Sassuolo 18% 5.50

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 56% 2.27 Over 2.5 44% 1.67 Over 1.5 @1.22

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 51% 2.00 Yes 49% 1.75

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

69% verified · logged before kick-off

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	44.2%	61.0%	17 pts under
Atalanta Win	58.9%	69.0%	10 pts under
Both Teams to Score	48.6%	57.8%	9 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Match Stats

Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.

Over 8.5 Match Corners 47% (model) Corners: Atalanta avg 6.0 for/4.2 against, Sassuolo avg 2.0 for/4.7 against → expected 8.4 match corners
Over 3.5 Match Cards 53% (model) Cards: Atalanta avg 1.5/game, Sassuolo avg 2.3/game → expected 3.8 match cards
Over 24.5 Match Fouls 47% (model) Fouls: Atalanta avg 12.6/game, Sassuolo avg 11.7/game → expected 24.3 match fouls
Over 26.5 Match Shots 67% (model) Shots: Atalanta avg 14.0/game, Sassuolo avg 15.0/game → expected 29.0 match shots

Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

01The read

Bragging Rights at Stake: Atalanta vs Sassuolo

The model makes Atalanta 59% favourites here. Sassuolo carry the 18% upset.

Atalanta slight edge (59%) | Predicted: 1-0 Confidence ★★★★★

Atalanta have taken five points from their last five; Sassuolo have lost three in a row. Form gives little away going into this Serie A tie.

Our verdict

Atalanta shade it at 59%, though Sassuolo won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Atalanta with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.

Our pick

Our PickAtalanta to win at @1.53. Model probability 59% vs implied 65%. The market is 6pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model59%

Market65%

Key facts

📉

Cold Run Sassuolo have lost their last 3. Confidence in that dressing room will be low

▸ Form & goals

The gap in chance quality is clear: Atalanta come out at +0.3 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Atalanta create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Sassuolo create 1.2 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Atalanta. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.

Atalanta average 1.2 goals per game and Sassuolo manage 1.0. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 44% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.

Both teams score in 42% of Atalanta's home games and 58% of Sassuolo's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like Atalanta but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.12 , which pays out if Atalanta win or draw, covers 82% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (11%) and 2-0 (7%).

First Half Result

Atalanta HT 1.95
Draw HT 2.40
Sassuolo HT 5.50

Team Intel

📊 Atalanta · xG

For: 1.39/g Against: 1.05/g

📊 Sassuolo · xG

For: 1.18/g Against: 1.39/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Atalanta vs Sassuolo Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Atalanta Win	@1.53	58.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@4.00	22.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Sassuolo Win	@5.50	18.2%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.75	48.6%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.00	51.4%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.67	44.2%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.27	55.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.22	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.75	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.50	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Atalanta

1 unbeaten

Last 5 DLWDL

At home LD

Clean sheets 34% BTTS 53% FTS 21%

Sassuolo

3L streak

Last 5 LLLWD

On the road LLD

Clean sheets 21% BTTS 53% FTS 32%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-0 10.9%

2-0 6.5%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Atalanta under 3 goals 85% @1.18 Marathon Bet
Over 1.5 goals 84% @1.23 Betano
Sassuolo under 1.5 goals 84% @1.27 Betano
Under 4 goals 83% @1.20 Marathon Bet
Under 2.5 second half goals 83% @1.29 Betano
Over 7.5 corners 81% @1.35 Betano
Under 11.5 corners 81% @1.38 Unibet
Sassuolo under 4.5 corners 81% @1.33 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 78% @1.35 Betano
Atalanta over 4.5 corners 76% @1.33 Betano
Atalanta under 7.5 corners 76% @1.43 Unibet
Over 1 second half goals 75% @1.33 Marathon Bet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Atalanta v Sassuolo builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 82% @ 1.22
2 Over 1.5 Goals 77% @ 1.30

@1.59 £10 returns £15.88

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 766 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Atalanta vs Sassuolo: FAQs

Who will win Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Our model makes Atalanta the favourite with a 58.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Best available odds: Atalanta @ 1.53, Draw @ 4.00, Sassuolo @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Atalanta vs Sassuolo kick off?

Atalanta vs Sassuolo kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.6% probability.

Atalanta vs Sassuolo prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Atalanta to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.