03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
34.1% |
47.2% |
13 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
45.3% |
53.8% |
8 pts under
|
| Draw |
29.3% |
33.8% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🚨
Lecce have failed to score in 50% of matches
01The read
Venezia vs Lecce: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
Lecce have drawn a blank in 50% of their games this season. Venezia's defence will fancy that.
Venezia slight edge (48%) | Lower-scoring game likely (66%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Venezia at @2.30 for this Serie A tie, with Lecce out at @3.00.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Venezia edge it at 48% but a draw (29%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Lecce fail to score in 50% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
▸ Form & goals
Venezia average 0.0 goals per game and Lecce manage 1.2. Combined that's just 1.2. We make it only 34% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
▸ Team news & context
Venezia do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Lecce prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Venezia against this setup.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Venezia but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.35 , which pays out if Venezia win or draw, covers 77% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%) and 2-0 (3%).
First Half Result
-
Venezia HT
2.80
-
Draw HT
2.05
-
Lecce HT
3.70
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Lecce · xG
For: 0.91/g
Against: 1.57/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Venezia vs Lecce Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Venezia Win |
@2.30
|
47.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.10
|
29.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Lecce Win |
@3.00
|
37.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.91
|
45.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.85
|
54.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.20
|
34.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.71
|
65.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.06
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
15.3%
2-0
3.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2 second half goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
83%
@1.25
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.34
Betano
-
Lecce over 2.5 corners
81%
@1.25
Betano
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
81%
@1.35
Betano
-
Under 11.5 corners
80%
@1.40
Unibet
-
Venezia over 3.5 corners
80%
@1.26
Betano
-
Venezia over 0.5 goals
79%
@1.32
Betano
-
Lecce under 5.5 corners
79%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
77%
@1.40
Betano
-
Venezia or Lecce (double chance)
77%
@1.38
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3 goals
76%
@1.35
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →