03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
44.2% |
61.7% |
18 pts under
|
| Inter Win |
67.0% |
83.3% |
16 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
40.5% |
45.5% |
5 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Neighbours Collide: Inter and Monza Separated by Fine Margins
Inter 67%, the draw 18%, Monza 15%. That's the shape of this one.
Inter to win (67%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Inter at @1.22 for this Serie A tie, with Monza out at @12.00.
Our verdict
Inter shade it at 67%, though Monza won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Inter with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickInter to win at @1.22. Model probability 67% vs implied 82%. The market is 15pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🧤
Defensive Wall
Inter keep clean sheets in 47% of games. One of the tightest defences around
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Inter are scoring 2.7 a game (2.7 of those at home) and Monza manage 0.0 (0.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 44%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 41%.
▸ Team news & context
Inter are all-out attack: 2.7 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Monza, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Monza prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Inter against this setup.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%) and 2-0 (9%).
First Half Result
-
Inter HT
1.62
-
Draw HT
2.62
-
Monza HT
10.00
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Inter · xG
For: 1.67/g
Against: 1.39/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.83/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Inter vs Monza Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Inter Win |
@1.22
|
67.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@6.00
|
18.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Monza Win |
@12.00
|
14.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.20
|
40.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.62
|
59.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
44.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.33
|
55.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.60
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
12.8%
2-0
8.8%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 1.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Under 2 first half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Inter to win
83%
@1.25
1xBet
-
Under 4 goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Inter over 4.5 corners
83%
@1.23
Betano
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.30
Betano
-
Inter under 3.5 goals
82%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Monza over 1.5 corners
81%
@1.33
Unibet
-
Inter under 8.5 corners
80%
@1.37
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
78%
@1.35
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
78%
@1.31
Betano
-
Under 11.5 corners
78%
@1.35
Unibet
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