03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
41.1% |
57.1% |
16 pts under
|
| Juventus Win |
59.7% |
72.5% |
13 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
44.5% |
51.3% |
7 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Frosinone vs Juventus
Frosinone 14%, the draw 26%, Juventus 60%. That's the shape of this one.
Juventus slight edge (60%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Frosinone at @6.50 for this Serie A tie, with Juventus out at @1.44.
Our verdict
The data leans towards Juventus (60%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Frosinone have the tools to make this uncomfortable.
Our pick
Our PickJuventus to win at @1.44. Model probability 60% vs implied 69%. The market is 10pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
▸ Form & goals
Frosinone average 0.0 goals per game and Juventus manage 1.0. Combined that's just 1.0. We make it only 41% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
▸ Team news & context
Frosinone do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Juventus prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Frosinone against this setup.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (20%) and 0-2 (5%).
First Half Result
-
Frosinone HT
6.50
-
Draw HT
2.38
-
Juventus HT
1.85
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Juventus · xG
For: 1.68/g
Against: 0.85/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.55/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Frosinone vs Juventus Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Frosinone Win |
@6.50
|
14.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.20
|
26.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Juventus Win |
@1.44
|
59.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.95
|
44.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.80
|
55.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.80
|
41.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.08
|
58.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-1
20.0%
0-2
5.0%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Juventus over 3.5 corners
84%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Juventus under 7.5 corners
84%
@1.25
Betano
-
Frosinone under 5.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.27
Betano
-
Under 11.5 corners
81%
@1.31
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
78%
@1.37
Unibet
-
Frosinone over 2.5 corners
78%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
75%
@1.40
Betano
-
Frosinone under 1 goals
75%
@1.33
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2 second half goals
75%
@1.34
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
74%
@1.40
Pinnacle
-
Juventus under 2.5 goals
74%
@1.43
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →